Bitcoin liquidity on the OTC market has crashed to an all-time low: whales are buying everything up.
The Bitcoin over-the-counter (OTC) trading market is experiencing unprecedented compression. On-chain data analysis shows that BTC liquidity on OTC platforms has reached an all-time low, and this is no coincidence but the result of a deliberate strategy by major players.
According to my calculations, the total Bitcoin balance on OTC platforms has decreased by 400,000 coins — from 550,000 to approximately 150,000 BTC. This sharp decline began as early as 2022 and continues to this day, despite the overall bullish market sentiment. In previous cycles, we observed the opposite trend: OTC balances grew closer to market peaks when whales locked in profits. Now, everything is different — the cycle structure has fundamentally changed.
Why This Bull Market Differs from Previous Ones
The key difference is the prolonged accumulation period. Large investors are not rushing to sell; instead, they are actively buying coins, leading to a depletion of supply on the OTC market. The rate of price increase in the current phase is noticeably lower than in previous cycles, indicating a drawn-out accumulation process. I believe the real rally will only begin after the whales complete their buying spree. Once that happens, OTC balances will start to rise again, signaling the onset of mass profit-taking.
The current liquidity low is a powerful bullish signal. It indicates that accumulation is happening at a pace the market has never seen before. Bitcoin supply on the OTC market has virtually dried up, setting the stage for a sharp price movement.
Stablecoin Reserves: The Other Side of the Coin
Alongside the decline in OTC balances, I observe a recovery in ERC-20 standard stablecoin reserves on Binance. After peaking above $50 billion at the end of 2025, the volume of free liquidity decreased, but since April 2026, it has stabilized in a range around $45.4 billion. This suggests that purchasing power is gradually accumulating on exchanges, though without signs of urgency from large investors.
These two pictures — the depletion of BTC on OTC and the slow recovery of "dry capital" in stablecoins — are complementary. Bitcoin supply is shrinking, while the potential for buying is growing. However, as I have noted, more time will be needed for a confident breakout of current levels. The market is preparing for a surge but is biding its time for now.
My conclusion: The current situation is a classic setup for a powerful bullish impulse. When whales finish accumulating and begin deploying the accumulated capital in stablecoins, we will see explosive growth. Investors should be prepared for volatility, but the long-term trend remains unequivocally upward.