The liquidity of Bitcoin on the OTC market has collapsed to an all-time low: whales continue aggressive accumulation.
The Bitcoin over-the-counter (OTC) trading market is facing an unprecedented liquidity squeeze. On-chain analytics data shows that the BTC balance on OTC platforms has dropped to a record low, signaling a powerful accumulation phase by large investors.
According to my analysis, based on data from the CryptoQuant platform, the total volume of bitcoin available for OTC transactions has decreased by 400,000 coins — from 550,000 to approximately 150,000 BTC. This trend has been consistent and has been observed since 2022. Major players, referred to as "whales" in the crypto community, are systematically withdrawing coins from the OTC market, creating a supply deficit.
New Market Cycle: Prolonged Accumulation Phase
The key difference between the current cycle and previous ones is its slower and more extended nature. In the past, rising OTC balances traditionally signaled the approaching end of a bull market. Now, we are seeing the opposite picture: despite bitcoin's price showing relative stability, whales are not rushing to take profits but continue to increase their positions.
My assessment of the situation: we are in a prolonged accumulation phase, where institutional investors and large holders are patiently gathering coins, waiting for a more favorable moment for a market reversal. Once the accumulation process is complete, we could witness a powerful bull rally. Historically, it is precisely when OTC balances hit bottom that the next upward trend begins.
Stablecoin Reserves: Quiet Growth in Purchasing Power
Additional confirmation of my hypothesis comes from the dynamics of ERC-20 standard stablecoin reserves on the Binance exchange. After peaking at $50 billion in late 2025, the volume of free liquidity declined, but since April 2026, it has stabilized in a sideways range around $45.4 billion.
The increase in stablecoin reserves indicates that "dry powder" — capital ready to enter the market — is gradually accumulating on exchanges. However, the pace of this recovery remains slow, with no signs of massive capital inflows from retail or large investors. This suggests that the market is not yet ready for aggressive growth, but the foundation for it is already being laid.
My professional opinion: We are observing a rare combination of factors — supply depletion on the OTC market and a gradual recovery of purchasing power on exchanges. This is a classic scenario preceding a significant price movement. However, a confident breakout of current levels will require time and an additional catalyst to push large capital into active action.