Silver at a Crossroads: Recovery or a New Collapse After Testing Key Support?
Silver (XAG) is attempting to return to the $69 mark after a local rebound of nearly 3%. However, the precious metal is still trading 45% below its January high and is at a critical zone that will determine its future trajectory. The market is caught between hopes of recovery and the risk of a deeper correction.
The local price increase coincided with a temporary de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East. Nevertheless, fundamental pressure remains strong: a strengthening US dollar and hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve continue to exert downward pressure on precious metals markets. Silver is trapped between attempts to recover losses and the threat of a new collapse.
Robert Kiyosaki's View: Waiting, Not Buying
Famous investor and author of the bestseller "Rich Dad Poor Dad," Robert Kiyosaki, stated this week that he does not plan to increase positions in gold, silver, Bitcoin (BTC), and Ethereum (ETH). In his opinion, the macroeconomic situation is crucial for market entry, not the current price decline. Kiyosaki does not specify target levels or concrete timelines, indicating his extremely cautious stance.
Technical Analysis: Key Level $68.88
On the four-hour chart, silver broke through the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at $68.88 and is now attempting to consolidate above it. This level becomes the main bifurcation point for the market.
Independent analyst Kamil Uray notes that support remains at the $63 level — this threshold is holding for now. If the price can overcome resistance in the $71 zone, the path will open to the next resistance in the $77-89 range. Until then, silver remains in a sideways corridor.
XAG Forecast: Everything Depends on the $68.88 Level
On the daily chart, silver has shown a sustained downtrend since January. New lows formed almost immediately at peaks around $96 and $89. The price is now 45% below the all-time high of $121.76 — the correction is deepening. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen to the 40 level but failed to cross the neutral 50 mark, indicating a continued bearish momentum.
A successful recovery above $68.88 would shift the market's focus first to $79, then to the resistance zone of $89. If the level is lost, silver could return to $55 — the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, coinciding with long-term support.
My expert opinion: The silver market is in a classic zone of uncertainty. For now, the initiative remains with sellers, and a trend change requires not just a local rebound, but a firm consolidation above $68.88 on a weekly close. Investors should be patient: the current level is not an entry point, but a zone for observation. A breakout above $71 would be the first signal of a reversal, but until then, the market structure remains bearish.