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The market has witnessed a dramatic event: SpaceX's market capitalization shrank by more than $600 billion in just three trading sessions. This amount is comparable to nearly half of Bitcoin's current market value, which at the time of analysis stood at about $1.25 trillion. Such a decline is not merely a correction but a signal of deep structural changes in the perception of high-risk assets.

Mechanism of the collapse: IPO, debt, and dilution of shares

On June 22, Elon Musk's company shares plummeted by 16%, reaching $154.60 — the lowest level since its stock market debut on June 12. The trigger was news of SpaceX's plans to conduct its first public offering of dollar-denominated bonds worth $20 billion. According to the company, these funds will be used to refinance a bridge loan related to the purchase of xAI, which matures in September 2027.

Over three days, the shares lost about 23% of their value. Just a week earlier, the company's valuation approached $2.5 trillion, but after the sell-off, it dropped to just above $2 trillion. A key factor amplifying the decline was the low volume of shares in free float. With a limited number of securities, even isolated news can trigger sharp price movements. On the Hyperliquid platform, the perpetual contract for SpaceX shares fell an additional 15% on Tuesday to $151.

Bitcoin amid the storm: resilience or temporary calm?

In contrast to SpaceX, Bitcoin lost less than 1% over the same period, trading around $63,600. This resilience is explained by the significantly greater depth and liquidity of the cryptocurrency market. However, both assets — SpaceX and Bitcoin — are heavily dependent on overall risk appetite, especially amid growing investor interest in the artificial intelligence sector.

The decline in SpaceX coincided with a broader correction in technology stocks. Analysts attribute this to growing doubts about the profitability of massive AI investments. For the crypto market, this is a worrying signal, as interest in AI and high-risk assets has been supporting the recovery of digital currencies in recent weeks.

The oil factor and macroeconomic context

An opposing factor that could support risky assets is oil. Amid progress in Middle East negotiations, Washington granted Iran a 60-day license to resume oil exports. Following this news, Brent closed below $78 per barrel. Cheaper oil reduces inflationary pressure, which had forced the Federal Reserve to maintain a tight monetary policy. For Bitcoin, this is a potentially positive signal.

SpaceX's financial health: losses and a bet on AI

According to the S-1 filing, SpaceX posted a net loss of $4.94 billion for 2025 and $4.28 billion for the first quarter of 2026. Before consolidating xAI, the company was closer to profitability: in 2024, it earned $791 million in net profit. The main source of pressure was the AI segment: xAI generated $3.20 billion in revenue in 2025 but had an operating loss of $6.36 billion.

Starlink remains the most profitable part of the business. In the financial statements, it is listed under Connectivity: in 2025, the segment generated $11.39 billion in revenue and $4.42 billion in operating income. However, an additional pressure factor was the deal to acquire AI assistant developer Cursor (Anysphere) for $60 billion in stock. This structure does not require cash outlays but dilutes existing shareholders' stakes by approximately 3.4% of SpaceX's valuation at the time of its stock market debut.

My expert conclusion: The decline of SpaceX is not just a correction for one company but a symptom of overheating in the AI and high-risk asset markets. For Bitcoin, this creates a dual situation: on one hand, capital outflows from the tech sector could temporarily support the cryptocurrency as an alternative asset, but on the other hand, a decline in overall risk appetite threatens a collapse for digital currencies as well. The key indicator in the coming weeks will be the dynamics of the Nasdaq index and the behavior of oil prices.