Three memecoins this week: where whales place their bets while the charts remain silent
This week, I am highlighting three memecoins that caught my attention not so much due to overall market dynamics, but because of their internal contradictions. The gap between the positioning of major players and actual price action creates interesting entry points but requires caution. Let's break down each case.
Official Trump (TRUMP): Bullish Cartel vs. Bearish Chart
TRUMP on Solana is one of the most volatile memecoins right now. The token gained over 5% in a day, but the technical picture remains ambiguous. On Hyperliquid, smart money holds a net long position in perpetual contracts worth $627,000 — a clear signal of belief in growth. On spot exchanges, conversely, an outflow of $681,000 was recorded, which is classically interpreted as accumulation.
Funding is currently close to -24% annualized. In other words, short sellers are paying long holders to maintain their positions. Additional inflow to fresh wallets amounted to $559,000 — indicating new buyers entering. It would seem everything points to bullish dominance. However, the chart has been moving in a descending channel since mid-March, and an attempt to break the $2.20 level on June 13 failed — volumes quickly dried up.
My conclusion: until TRUMP closes above $2.20, it is premature to talk about a trend reversal. Support from "smart money" may only provide short-term bounces within the range. If growth does not materialize, a correction to $1.48 becomes a realistic scenario, especially against the backdrop of geopolitical risks.
SPX6900 (SPX): Retail Optimism vs. Institutional Skepticism
SPX6900 maintains its gains despite the overall memecoin downturn — up 8% over the week. However, the largest holders have taken opposing positions. Wallets with balances from 1 million to 10 million SPX increased their share from 33.98% to 34.69%, while wallets with 10–100 million SPX decreased theirs from 28.56% to 27.79%. Large players have started reducing positions, while smaller investors are increasing theirs.
Nansen data confirms the divergence: "smart money" holds a net short position of $115,000 on perpetual contracts. Sellers are in control, and buyers are now paying to hold longs. Meanwhile, fresh inflows of $439,000 come precisely from retail investors going against the whales.
Technically, a double top has formed at the $0.49 level — a bearish signal. The first rejection occurred on May 11, the second on June 17. It is likely that large traders opened shorts there. A break below the $0.26 level could lead to a further 45% decline. For a reversal to the upside, a recovery above $0.49 is critical.
My assessment: SPX is a classic example of the conflict between retail optimism and institutional skepticism. Until the whales change their stance, sustainable growth should not be expected.
Degen (DEGEN): Growth on Low Volume — A Warning Sign
Degen shows +8% in a day and over 25% over the week. Against this backdrop, other projects look sluggish. However, the technical picture is unstable. Since May 30, DEGEN has been moving within an ascending channel, but volumes since June 4 have dropped to some of the lowest levels. Without momentum, further growth is questionable.
There is no perpetual contract market for DEGEN, so tracking leveraged shorts is impossible. On the spot market, the balance favors sellers based on the 24-hour ratio, with the largest holder dumping 185 million tokens over the week. "Smart" money is not rushing in — there is no tangible support. Token withdrawals of $251,000 and the appearance of new wallets have been recorded, which slightly supports the bullish scenario, but market confidence is practically absent.
The key level is $0.0020. A clear breakout above would provide a chance to test the upper trendline. But weak volume could halt the move before that. Support sits at $0.0017. If quotes fall below, it could open the path to $0.0015 and then $0.0014.
My verdict: DEGEN is a memecoin with a strong narrative but without fundamental support. Growth on low volume often ends in a sharp correction. I would keep it on the watchlist but not rush to enter.
Expert Summary: This week, the memecoin market demonstrates a classic conflict between sentiment and capital. Until whales synchronize their actions with the charts, any impulse risks being a trap. Pay close attention to the levels — they are speaking louder than positioning right now.