Crypto news

This week, I highlighted three memecoins that show the most interesting dynamics. This isn't just about hype, but about a real divergence between the positions of large players (so-called "smart money") and the current price. Such gaps often precede significant movements, and that's exactly what we're seeing now.

Large holders and institutional wallets are actively restructuring their portfolios, but the charts don't always confirm their strategy. This creates a zone of uncertainty that, on one hand, scares retail traders, and on the other, opens up opportunities for those who can read on-chain data.

Official Trump (TRUMP)

Official Trump (TRUMP) starts the week as one of the most volatile memecoins. The token gained over 5% in the last day, but the technical picture remains ambiguous.

On-chain positioning indicates a bullish sentiment. Smart money holds a net long position in perpetual contracts on Hyperliquid worth $627,000 — a subconscious signal of a potential price increase. On spot exchanges, an outflow of $681,000 was recorded, signaling accumulation. Funding — the regular fee between longs and shorts — is currently close to negative 24% annualized. In other words, short sellers are paying long holders.

Additional inflows to fresh wallets amounted to $559,000, indicating the arrival of new buyers. Smart money is already in long positions, funding is favorable for bulls — all of this only strengthens buyer dominance.

The technical picture is different. TRUMP — a memecoin from the Solana ecosystem — has been moving in a descending channel since mid-March, gradually declining. On June 13, TRUMP attempted to break above the $2.20 level but failed to hold. Volumes spiked on this impulse but quickly faded — there weren't enough buyers for a sustained move. A similar pattern is now observed: a surge followed by a decline. This imbalance between bullish positioning and bearish technical structure often leads to a trap for market participants.

The current tension makes TRUMP one of the main memecoins of the week. To restore an uptrend, the coin needs to overcome the $2.20 level — a jump of 16.46%. Until this happens, support from smart money could provide short-term bounces within the range. If growth doesn't materialize, a correction to $1.48 is possible — especially amid escalating conflicts involving Trump and Iran.

SPX6900 (SPX)

SPX6900 (SPX) made it into the review because it remains profitable despite a downturn in most memecoins. The token rose about 8% over the week, but the largest holders have taken opposing positions. This divergence makes SPX an interesting coin to watch.

Starting June 18, the two main categories of holders began to diverge. Holders with balances from 1 million to 10 million SPX increased their share from 33.98% to 34.69%. Meanwhile, wallets with holdings from 10 million to 100 million SPX decreased their share from 28.56% to 27.79%. That is, the largest players started reducing positions, while smaller investors increased their holdings.

The Nansen platform confirms this gap: smart money holds a net short position of $115,000 in perpetual contracts. Sellers are in control, and buyers are now paying for longs — all of this aligns with the actions of large whales selling the asset. At the same time, fresh inflows of $439,000 are noted on the market — small investors are going against large sellers, expressing their own optimism.

The chart clearly shows the reason for caution: a double top formed at the $0.49 level — a bearish signal where the price fails to break resistance twice. The first rejection occurred on May 11, the second on June 17. It's likely that large traders opened shorts there. A break below the $0.26 level could lead to a further 45% drop.

On the path to growth, levels remain decisive. The first barrier is $0.38, followed by $0.40 and $0.44. For a true reversal upward, it's important to recover above $0.49. A breakdown below $0.35 would open the way to $0.31 and then $0.26.

Degen (DEGEN)

Degen (DEGEN) is among the memecoins that continue to rise. The token gained about 8% in the last day and over 25% over the week. Against this backdrop, other projects in the segment look sluggish.

However, despite the dynamics, the technical picture looks unstable. Since May 30, DEGEN has been moving within an ascending channel — a range between two parallel trend lines. The token is now approaching the upper boundary again. Meanwhile, volumes since June 4 have fallen to some of the lowest levels. Therefore, there may not be enough momentum for further growth.

The Nansen platform also notes this risk. DEGEN has no perpetual contract market, so leveraged shorts cannot be tracked. On the spot side, the 24-hour ratio favors sellers, with the largest holder dumping 185 million tokens over the week. "Smart" money is not rushing in — there is no significant support. Token outflows of $251,000 and the appearance of new wallets have been recorded, slightly supporting a bullish scenario, but market confidence is virtually absent.

Such weak volume and simple fund flow dynamics coincide — both indicators point to a lack of solid growth support. The key level is $0.0020. A clear breakout above would provide a chance to test the upper trend line. However, weak volume could easily halt the move before that. Support is at $0.0017. If quotes fall below, they could open the way to $0.0015 and then $0.0014. Against the backdrop of expectations for sharp growth fueled by trader sentiment, bearish signals persist on the chart — Degen remains one of the main memecoins to watch this week.

My conclusion: The current situation resembles a classic battle between "smart money" and retail investors. While large players take profits or open shorts, small traders try to catch the bottom. In such conditions, the key factor becomes not so much technical analysis as the ability to interpret on-chain data. Personally, I see potential in TRUMP and DEGEN, but only if key levels are broken. SPX raises more questions due to the clear double top. Be cautious and don't give in to emotions.