Three memecoins this week: where real potential lies and where retail investors are being trapped.
This week, the memecoin market once again demonstrates the volatility characteristic of this sector. However, beneath the general noise, interesting structural divergences are hidden between the actions of large players ("smart money") and retail traders. My analysis shows that it is this discrepancy that forms the key entry and exit points. Let's examine three coins that stand out from the crowd.
Official Trump (TRUMP): Bullish positioning vs. bearish chart
TRUMP started the week with a confident rise of more than 5% in a day. However, the technical picture is far from clear-cut. On one hand, we see a clear signal from "smart money" on Hyperliquid: a net long position in perpetual contracts worth $627,000. This is a powerful indicator of professional traders' expectations. Moreover, the current funding rate is negative (around -24% annualized), meaning payments from short sellers to long holders — a classic bullish scenario.
On the other hand, the price chart has been in a descending channel since mid-March. The attempt to break the $2.20 level on June 13 failed, and volumes quickly dried up. This is a classic imbalance: large players are betting on growth, but the market is not yet ready to support it. To resume the uptrend, the coin critically needs to establish itself above $2.20. Until this happens, any upward movement risks remaining just a local bounce within the range. In a negative scenario, a correction to $1.48 cannot be ruled out.
SPX6900 (SPX): Divergence between whales and small investors
SPX is a rare example of a memecoin showing positive dynamics this week (+8% over 7 days) against the backdrop of a general sector decline. However, my attention was drawn not so much to the price movement itself, but to the behavior of holders. Since June 18, the largest wallets (with balances from 10 million to 100 million SPX) have begun reducing their positions, decreasing their share from 28.56% to 27.79%. At the same time, smaller investors (1–10 million SPX) increased their share from 33.98% to 34.69%.
This is a classic redistribution pattern, where "smart money" takes profits or opens shorts, while retail, conversely, accumulates positions. Nansen data confirms: a net short position of $115,000 is open on perpetual contracts. Technically, a double top has formed at the $0.49 level — a bearish signal that has pushed the price down twice (May 11 and June 17). A break below the $0.35 support would open the path to $0.31 and then to $0.26, implying a potential further drop of 45%.
Degen (DEGEN): Growth without volume — a red flag
DEGEN gained over 25% for the week and about 8% in a day. At first glance, it is the sector leader. However, upon detailed analysis, the picture changes. Since May 30, the coin has been moving within an ascending channel, but trading volumes since June 4 have been at some of their lowest levels. This suggests that the current growth is not supported by real demand.
The situation is exacerbated by the absence of a perpetual contract market for DEGEN, making it impossible to track large players' positioning through futures. On the spot market, the balance is tipped towards sellers: the largest holder dumped 185 million tokens over the week. Exchange outflows were recorded at $251,000, and the emergence of new wallets only marginally supports the bullish scenario. The key level is $0.0020. A confident break above would provide a chance to test the upper boundary of the channel, but with current volumes, the move could stall before that. Support is at $0.0017; a break below would open the path to $0.0015 and $0.0014.
My expert opinion: The memecoin market is entering a phase of high uncertainty. The divergence between large players' positioning and the technical picture for TRUMP and SPX points to potential traps for retail traders. DEGEN, despite its impressive growth, is technically weak due to a lack of volume. Investors should exercise extreme caution and not give in to emotions — the current dynamics resemble a zero-sum game more than a sustainable trend.