Top-3 Memecoins of the Week: On-Chain Data Analysis and Hidden Signals
This week, I highlighted three meme coins that show the most interesting and contradictory dynamics. The key feature is the gap between the positioning of large players ("smart money") and the actual price picture. This creates both opportunities and serious risks for retail investors.
Official Trump (TRUMP): bullish sentiment amid a bearish chart
TRUMP starts the week with volatility. The token gained over 5% in a day, but the technical picture remains ambiguous. On-chain positioning indicates a bullish sentiment: "smart money" holds a net long position in perpetual contracts on Hyperliquid worth $627,000 — a strong signal of potential growth.
On spot exchanges, an outflow of $681,000 was recorded, which is a sign of accumulation. Funding — the regular fee between longs and shorts — is currently close to minus 24% annually. In other words, short sellers are paying long holders, further strengthening buyer dominance. Inflow to fresh wallets amounted to $559,000, indicating the arrival of new participants.
However, the technical picture is different. TRUMP — a Solana ecosystem meme coin — has been moving in a descending channel since mid-March. At the $2.20 level on June 13, there was an attempt to break out, but it failed to hold. Volumes spiked sharply but quickly faded. A similar pattern is now observed: a surge followed by a decline. This imbalance between bullish positioning and bearish technical structure often leads to a trap for market participants.
To restore the upward trend, the coin needs to overcome the $2.20 level — a jump of 16.46%. Until this happens, support from "smart money" may only provide short-term bounces within the range. If growth does not occur, a correction to $1.48 is possible — especially amid escalating geopolitical conflicts.
SPX6900 (SPX): divergence between whales and retail
SPX6900 made it into the review because it remains profitable despite the decline in most meme coins. The token rose about 8% over the week, but the largest holders took opposite positions. Starting June 18, two main categories of holders began to diverge. Owners with balances from 1 million to 10 million SPX increased their share from 33.98% to 34.69%. Meanwhile, wallets with holdings from 10 million to 100 million SPX reduced their share from 28.56% to 27.79%.
That is, the largest players began to reduce positions, while smaller investors increased their holdings. Nansen confirms this gap: "smart money" holds a net short position of $115,000 in perpetual contracts. Sellers are in control, and buyers are now paying for longs — all consistent with the actions of large whales selling the asset.
The chart clearly shows the reason for caution: a double top formed at the $0.49 level — a bearish signal where the price fails to break resistance twice. The first rejection occurred on May 11, the second on June 17. It is likely that large traders opened shorts there. A break below the $0.26 level could lead to a further 45% drop.
On the path to growth, levels remain decisive. The first barrier is $0.38, followed by $0.40 and $0.44. For a true upward reversal, it is important to recover above $0.49. A downward break below $0.35 would open the way to $0.31 and then $0.26.
Degen (DEGEN): growth without support
Degen is among the meme coins that continue to rise. The token gained about 8% in a day and over 25% in a week. However, despite the momentum, the technical picture looks unstable. Since May 30, DEGEN has been moving within an ascending channel. The token is now approaching the upper boundary again. Meanwhile, volumes since June 4 have dropped to some of the lowest levels. Therefore, there may not be enough momentum for further growth.
The Nansen platform also notes this risk. DEGEN has no perpetual contract market, so leveraged shorts cannot be tracked. On spot, the balance is tilted toward sellers based on the 24-hour ratio, with the largest holder dumping 185 million tokens over the week. "Smart" money is not rushing in — there is no significant support. A token withdrawal of $251,000 and the appearance of new wallets have been recorded, which slightly supports the bullish scenario, but market confidence is virtually absent.
The key level is $0.0020. A clear breakout above would provide a chance to test the upper trendline. However, weak volume could easily halt the move before that. Support stands at $0.0017. If prices fall below, they could open the way to $0.0015 and then $0.0014.
My analysis: Against the backdrop of expectations for sharp growth fueled by trader sentiment, bearish signals persist on the charts. The divergence between on-chain positioning and the technical picture is a classic sign of market uncertainty. Investors should exercise maximum caution: the current situation resembles a zero-sum game where only the most prepared win.