Silver at a Crossroads: Key Support Test Will Determine the Metal's Future
Silver (XAG) is attempting a recovery after an almost 3% bounce, but is still trading 45% below its January high. The key question now is whether the metal can hold above the critical level that will determine its near-term dynamics.
The local rise coincided with a temporary easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, where the confrontation between the US and Iran has somewhat subsided. However, fundamental factors — a strong dollar and the cautious policy of the Federal Reserve — continue to pressure the precious metals market. As a result, silver is caught between attempts to bounce and the risk of a deeper decline.
Robert Kiyosaki is waiting: macroeconomics matters more than prices
On Monday, the price of silver rose to $66.7 — an increase of almost 2.8% in a single day. This growth reflected a decline in demand for safe-haven assets amid the temporary de-escalation of the conflict. However, renowned investor and author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad," Robert Kiyosaki, stated that he does not yet plan to increase investments in gold, silver, Bitcoin (BTC), and Ethereum (ETH). In his view, the macroeconomic situation is decisive, not the current price decline. Kiyosaki does not specify target levels or exact entry points, indicating a wait-and-see stance.
Key level — $68.88
On the four-hour chart, silver has fallen below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level — $68.88 — and is now attempting to recover above it. This mark becomes the point on which the further direction of dynamics depends.
Independent analyst Kamil Uray notes that support remains at the $63 level — this threshold is holding for now. If the price rises above $71, the path to resistance in the $77-89 range will open. Until then, silver remains in a corridor between support at $63 and resistance at $71.
If quotes consolidate above this zone, the bounce will have prospects for continuation. Until then, silver remains in a bearish trend.
XAG forecast: everything hinges on the $68.88 level
The daily chart shows that since January, silver has been in a steady downtrend. At peaks around $96 and $89, new lows formed almost immediately. The price is now 45% below the all-time high of $121.76: the correction is deepening. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) has risen to the 40 level but has not yet crossed the neutral 50 mark.
A recovery above $68.88 would shift market focus first to $79, and then to the resistance zone at $89. If the level is lost, silver could return to $55 — the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, coinciding with long-term support.
The $68.88 level will serve as a benchmark that a reversal must overcome. Kiyosaki is also counting on it. If the week closes above this mark, it could signal the beginning of a market reversal. A deviation from this level will leave the structure bearish.
My opinion: For now, the initiative remains with the sellers, and silver needs to consolidate above the designated zone. Only after that can long-term long positions be considered. The current situation is a classic example of a battle between bulls and bears at a key technical level.