SpaceX Catastrophe: $600 Billion Lost in Three Days — What It Means for Bitcoin and the Risk Market
Over three trading sessions, SpaceX's market capitalization collapsed by more than $600 billion. This amount is comparable to nearly half of Bitcoin's total market value. Such a decline is not just a correction in a single stock, but a signal of deep structural problems in the high-risk technology asset segment.
On June 22, Elon Musk's company shares plunged 16% to $154.60 — the lowest level since its stock market debut on June 12. The trigger was news of SpaceX's plans to issue $20 billion in public bonds to refinance a bridge loan related to the purchase of xAI. Over three sessions, the total decline was about 23%. Just a week earlier, the company's valuation hovered around $2.5 trillion, but after the sell-off, it dropped to just above $2 trillion.
Nature of the Collapse: Liquidity and Structure
The key factor I highlight as an analyst is the extremely low volume of shares in free float. With such a liquidity deficit, even isolated news can trigger avalanche-like movements. On the Hyperliquid platform, the perpetual contract for SpaceX shares additionally fell 15% on Tuesday to $151, confirming the high volatility of derivative instruments.
Against this backdrop, Bitcoin demonstrated enviable stability, losing less than 1% over the same period and trading around $63,600. The market capitalization of the first cryptocurrency at the time of analysis is approximately $1.25–1.3 trillion. This is a direct consequence of the greater market depth and diversified liquidity of BTC.
Macroeconomic Context: AI, Oil, and Risk
The SpaceX decline coincided with a broad correction in technology stocks. Investors are increasingly questioning the return on massive spending on artificial intelligence. For the crypto market, this factor is critical: it was interest in AI and risky assets that supported the recovery of cryptocurrencies in recent weeks.
However, there is a counterbalance — oil. After news of a 60-day license issued to Iran to resume exports, Brent closed below $78 per barrel. Cheaper oil reduces inflationary pressure, which could force the Fed to soften its hawkish stance. For Bitcoin and other risky assets, this is a potentially supportive factor.
SpaceX Financial Health: Losses and Dilution
According to the S-1 filing, SpaceX recorded a net loss of $4.94 billion for 2025 and $4.28 billion for the first quarter of 2026. Before the consolidation of xAI, the company was profitable: in 2024, net profit was $791 million. The AI segment became the main source of pressure: xAI generated $3.20 billion in revenue with an operating loss of $6.36 billion.
Starlink remains the most stable asset: in 2025, the Connectivity segment posted $11.39 billion in revenue and $4.42 billion in operating income. However, the purchase of Anysphere (developer of Cursor) for $60 billion in shares creates additional dilution of shareholder equity by approximately 3.4%.
My conclusion: The SpaceX decline is not an isolated incident but a symptom of overheating in the AI asset market. For crypto investors, this is a reminder: in conditions of low liquidity and high risk concentration, even "blue chips" can exhibit movements comparable to altcoins. Bitcoin, thanks to its mature infrastructure, is currently acting as a safe haven.