Crypto news

While the general public is guessing where the market will move, professional players are already actively restructuring their portfolios. This week, I have identified three memecoins where the divergence between "smart money" actions and the technical picture is reaching a critical point. Such moments often precede strong movements.

Official Trump (TRUMP): battle of bulls and bears at $2.20

TRUMP starts the week as one of the most volatile assets. Over the past day, the token has gained more than 5%, but the technical picture remains ambiguous. On one hand, we see a bullish sentiment: smart money holds a net long position on perpetual contracts on Hyperliquid worth $627,000. On spot exchanges, an outflow of $681,000 has been recorded — a classic signal of accumulation. The funding rate (a regular fee between longs and shorts) is currently close to minus 24% annually. In other words, short sellers are paying long holders, which further incentivizes buyers.

However, the technical picture tells a different story. Since mid-March, TRUMP has been moving within a descending channel. An attempt to break the $2.20 level on June 13 failed — volumes quickly dried up. A similar pattern is now observed: a surge followed by a fade. Until the price firmly closes above $2.20, it is too early to talk about a trend reversal. Without this, a correction to $1.48 is possible, especially amid geopolitical risks.

SPX6900 (SPX): whales sell, retail buys

SPX6900 made it into the review due to its resilience: over the week, the token grew by about 8%, despite a general decline among most memecoins. But the most interesting aspect is the divergence among the largest holders. Owners with balances from 1 million to 10 million SPX increased their share from 33.98% to 34.69%. Meanwhile, wallets with holdings from 10 million to 100 million SPX reduced their share from 28.56% to 27.79%.

Data from Nansen confirms this gap: "smart money" holds a net short position of $115,000 on perpetual contracts. Sellers are in control, and buyers are now paying for long positions. At the same time, fresh inflows of $439,000 are noted on the market — small investors are going against large sellers, expressing their own optimism.

From a technical standpoint, a double top has formed at the $0.49 level — a bearish signal. The first rejection occurred on May 11, the second on June 17. It is likely that large traders opened shorts there. A break below the $0.26 level could lead to a further 45% drop.

Degen (DEGEN): growth on a weak foundation

Degen is among the memecoins that continue to rise. Over the past day, the token gained about 8%, and over the week, more than 25%. However, despite this momentum, the technical picture looks unstable. Since May 30, DEGEN has been moving within an ascending channel, but volumes since June 4 have dropped to some of the lowest levels. There may not be enough impulse for further growth.

On the spot market, sellers have the upper hand based on the 24-hour ratio, with the largest holder dumping 185 million tokens over the week. "Smart" money is in no hurry to enter — there is no significant support. An outflow of $251,000 in tokens and the emergence of new wallets have been recorded, which slightly supports the bullish scenario, but there is virtually no confidence in the market.

The key level is $0.0020. A clear breakout above would provide a chance to test the upper trendline. However, weak volume could easily halt the movement before that. Support is at $0.0017. If quotes fall below, it could open the path to $0.0015 and then $0.0014.

My conclusion: this week we are witnessing a classic conflict between retail investor sentiment and the actions of large players. TRUMP and SPX show clear signs of bearish pressure, despite local optimism. DEGEN appears most vulnerable due to the lack of institutional support. I recommend caution and not giving in to emotions — the current dynamics point more toward a correction than sustainable growth.