Three memecoins this week: which one is truly ready for a surge?
While the memecoin market is going through a mixed phase, I have highlighted three projects that caught my attention due to their structure and capital flow. This week, the key factor is the divergence between the positions of large players and actual price dynamics. Let's break down each case.
Official Trump (TRUMP): bullish sentiment vs. bearish chart
TRUMP demonstrates a classic conflict of interest. Over the past day, the token has gained more than 5%, and smart money on Hyperliquid holds a net long of $627,000 — a strong signal of expected growth. However, the technical picture tells a different story: since mid-March, the asset has been moving in a descending channel, and an attempt to break the $2.20 level on June 13 failed due to a lack of buying volume.
Nevertheless, on the spot market, an outflow of $681,000 has been recorded, indicating accumulation. Funding is close to -24% annualized — short sellers are paying longs, and an inflow of $559,000 to new wallets suggests fresh buyers are entering. To restore the uptrend, TRUMP needs to overcome $2.20. Until this happens, support from smart money may only provide short-term bounces. If growth does not materialize, a correction to $1.48 is possible.
SPX6900 (SPX): divergence between whales and retail investors
SPX stands out against the backdrop of the overall memecoin decline, gaining about 8% over the week. However, the interest here lies in the divergence of holder strategies. The largest wallets (from 10 million to 100 million SPX) have started reducing positions, lowering their share from 28.56% to 27.79%. Meanwhile, smaller investors (from 1 million to 10 million SPX) have increased their share from 33.98% to 34.69%.
Nansen data confirms this gap: smart money holds a net short of $115,000 on perpetual contracts. A double top has formed on the chart at the $0.49 level — a bearish signal that twice prevented the price from breaking resistance. It is likely that large traders opened shorts there. A break of the $0.35 support would open the path to $0.31 and then to $0.26. For a reversal to the upside, SPX needs to recover above $0.49.
Degen (DEGEN): growth on weak volume — a trap?
DEGEN has gained about 8% over the past day and more than 25% over the week. However, my analysis points to a worrying signal: volumes since June 4 have dropped to some of the lowest levels. The token is moving within an ascending channel, but without sufficient momentum to break the upper boundary.
On the spot market, sellers have the upper hand based on the 24-hour ratio, and the largest holder has dumped 185 million tokens over the week. Smart money is in no rush to enter — there is no significant support. An outflow of $251,000 in tokens and the appearance of new wallets have been recorded, which slightly supports the bullish scenario, but confidence in the market is virtually absent.
The key level is $0.0020. A clear breakout above would provide a chance to test the upper trendline, but weak volume could halt the move before that. Support is at $0.0017. A move below would open the path to $0.0015 and $0.0014.
My opinion: Of the three memecoins, I consider SPX the most interesting to watch — the divergence between whales and retail often precedes a strong move, but the direction is still unclear. TRUMP and DEGEN appear riskier due to the conflict between sentiment and technical picture. Be cautious: memecoins remain a zone of high volatility.