Bitcoin is feeling for the bottom: the market is waiting for a signal, not a price
The cryptocurrency market is approaching a critical turning point. My analysis confirms: Bitcoin is forming a bottom relative to the S&P 500 index, and this is not a coincidence but the result of the synchronization of several key reversal patterns.
Synchronization of Reversals: ETH, Altcoins, and BTC
The first signal was the bottom of Ethereum against Bitcoin, recorded last year. Then the altcoin basket reached a low against BTC this year. Now it is Bitcoin's turn — it is testing the lower boundary relative to the US stock market. This sequence is a classic sign of the completion of a corrective phase.
Particular attention should be paid to the transformation of the previous cyclical high into a support level. This is a powerful technical signal: the market is not just holding, but restructuring, turning resistance into a foundation.
Crowd Psychology: Waiting for Confirmation, Not the Bottom
The key point I highlight in the current situation is the psychological aspect. The majority of investors are not waiting for the actual low, but for confirmation of a reversal. As I often tell my colleagues: "the crowd is waiting not for the bottom, but for permission to act." This very feature creates a paradox where the bottom may go unnoticed while some seek confirmation and others are already entering the market.
Record Margin Debt: Risk or Driver?
However, one cannot ignore a troubling macro signal. Margin debt in the US has increased by $112 billion over the past month, reaching a record $1.4 trillion. Since 2023, the volume of borrowed funds for trading has more than doubled. This means investors are aggressively borrowing to buy assets, including cryptocurrencies.
High margin debt is a double-edged sword. In the event of a sharp market reversal, it multiplies the risk of forced sell-offs when brokers close debtors' positions. This could trigger a cascading decline if sentiment changes abruptly.
My expert assessment: Bitcoin is indeed in a bottom-forming zone, but the macroeconomic backdrop with record margin debt adds volatility. The market may make one final sharp downward move before sustainable growth begins. Investors should be prepared for both scenarios and not succumb to the emotions of the crowd waiting for a perfect signal — it may never come.