Has Bitcoin found its bottom? Analysts point to reversal signals while the crowd waits for the "green light."
The cryptocurrency market appears to be going through a key bottom formation phase. My analysis of the latest macroeconomic and intra-market data indicates that Bitcoin may already be testing a local low relative to the S&P 500 index. This is an important signal that should not be ignored.
We are observing a convergence of several reversal patterns. Last year, Ethereum formed a bottom against Bitcoin, and this year, the basket of altcoins also reached a low relative to BTC. Now it is Bitcoin's turn—it is finding a bottom relative to the U.S. stock market. Such a sequence is a powerful bullish signal, indicating a trend change.
Previous Cycle Peak as New Support
Another important technical indicator: Bitcoin's previous cyclical peak has now transformed into a support level. The market is likely already testing the bottom before our eyes, although the majority of participants are still waiting for its formal confirmation. The crowd is not waiting for the actual low, but for "permission to act." This psychological feature is key: while investors seek confirmation of a reversal, the market may already be passing the bottom point.
However, alongside bullish signals, macroeconomic risks cannot be ignored. Margin debt in the U.S. has surged sharply, adding $112 billion in the last month and reaching a record $1.4 trillion. The volume of borrowed funds used for trading has more than doubled since 2023. This aggressive accumulation of leverage is a double-edged sword. High margin debt means investors are actively borrowing to buy assets, including cryptocurrencies. But in the event of a sharp market reversal, this increases the risk of forced sell-offs when brokers close debtors' positions.
My assessment: The situation resembles a classic "bottom amid fear" model. While retail investors wait for the "perfect entry point," professional players are already accumulating positions. However, record margin debt is a warning sign. Any sharp negative macroeconomic impulse could trigger a cascade of liquidations that sweeps away current support levels. Investors should be prepared for high volatility and consider current levels for strategic entry with clear risk management.