Bitcoin under historical pressure: whales are buying record volumes amid retail panic
The market for the first cryptocurrency is experiencing a unique moment. On-chain data analysis shows that Bitcoin is under the strongest downward pressure ever observed. The key indicator — the share of BTC supply in profit — has dropped to minimal values, while the pattern typical of previous cycles has been broken.
The volume of Bitcoin supply grows slightly with each new cycle. Previously, the share of coins in profit formed a trend line on which the market traditionally found its bottom. However, in the current cycle, this line has been broken, signaling much deeper weakness than in past bearish phases.
Whales are absorbing everything that retail sells
Paradoxically, amid record pressure, there is also record activity from large holders. Data shows that purchases by whales have reached an all-time high. While a significant portion of retail investors are panic-selling their coins and leaving the market, large players are absorbing all the supply. This is a classic divergence in the behavior of small and large participants, which usually precedes a trend reversal.
The current combination of extreme pressure and record whale accumulation mirrors the logic of past market bottoms, but in a much more pronounced form. Those who survive the current panic will ultimately take it all.
Why professionals and retail see the same thing differently
Interestingly, retail and professional investors interpret the same on-chain data in diametrically opposite ways. Retail focuses on simple and noticeable indicators: active addresses, transaction count, whale transfers, exchange inflows, and staking yields. These metrics are easy to understand and spread quickly on social media, amplifying panic.
However, a large whale transfer does not always mean a sale. It could be a collateral movement, a transfer to cold storage, an ETF settlement, or internal wallet management. Professionals look deeper — at cost structure and real capital flows, including Realized Cap, MVRV, SOPR, ETF flows, and stablecoin liquidity.
In the era of exchange-traded funds, Bitcoin can no longer be analyzed solely through on-chain data. The market is shifting from a model of "price rises first, then money comes in" to the opposite: "money comes in first, then price rises." The key today is not just to see the data, but to interpret it correctly.
My analysis: The current phase is a classic example of "retail capitulation" against the backdrop of "smart money" accumulation. The break of the historical trend line of the supply-in-profit share is a serious signal, but it is not a death sentence. Rather, it is an indicator that the market is being cleansed of weak hands, laying the foundation for a new bullish cycle. The key question is not whether the price will fall further, but when and with what force the reversal will begin after this accumulation phase is complete.