The U.S. Senate has blocked the digital dollar until 2030: an analysis of the reasons and consequences
The U.S. Senate has approved a bill that imposes a direct ban on the Federal Reserve from issuing a digital dollar (CBDC) until 2030. The decision was supported by 85 senators, with five votes against. The document must still pass through the House of Representatives and receive the president's signature, but the fact of such high support indicates a consolidated position among lawmakers.
Political Context and Hidden Mechanisms
The ban on the CBDC was included in what seemed to be an unrelated bill on affordable housing — the "21st Century ROAD to Housing Act." This is a classic legislative maneuver that allows Republicans to bypass lengthy procedures and accelerate the adoption of the norm. In fact, the document merely codifies into law the course set by President Trump back in January 2025, when he signed an executive order calling the digital dollar a threat to "the stability of the financial system, privacy, and sovereignty."
The key objection is not against the technology, but against the architecture of state control. As noted by Alexander Peresichan, CEO of Technobit, the direct issuance of a CBDC by the Fed technically gives the state access to all transactions in real time. That is precisely why Trump's supporters view this initiative not as an evolution of the dollar, but as a potential tool for financial surveillance, citing the Chinese e-CNY model, where state control over monetary flows is significantly broader.
Economic Logic: Banks vs. the State
Beyond privacy concerns, there is a structural argument. If citizens can store funds directly in Fed wallets, it would trigger a massive outflow of deposits from commercial banks, undermining their lending capacity. Igor Plotnikov, Executive Director of Millpay, emphasizes that the Trump administration is making a conscious bet on private stablecoins. This approach allows maintaining the dollar's dominance in the digital economy without radically restructuring the existing two-tier banking system. Notably, both Fed chairs — Jerome Powell and his successor Kevin Warsh, who called the idea a "mistaken policy decision" — have consistently opposed the digital dollar.
Global Landscape: The U.S. Slows Down, China and the EU Accelerate
While the U.S. legislatively blocks the development of a state digital currency, other jurisdictions are actively scaling their projects. By November 2025, China's e-CNY had processed transactions worth 16.7 trillion yuan ($2.37 trillion), and the number of personal wallets reached 230 million. Moreover, since January 2026, e-CNY has transitioned to version 2.0, where retail balances have become liabilities of commercial banks, allowing them to be used for lending and interest accrual. The Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China directly called this model an alternative to stablecoins.
The European Central Bank is also not standing still: the preparatory phase of the digital euro is complete, pilot tests will begin in the second half of 2027, and a large-scale launch is expected by 2029. As we can see, the world is moving toward regulated central bank digital currencies, and the U.S. risks falling behind.
My analysis: The CBDC ban in the U.S. is not so much a technological choice as a political and economic one. It fixes a fundamental difference in approaches: a bet on private innovative infrastructure (stablecoins) versus a centralized state model. However, by blocking the development of its own digital dollar, the U.S. is ceding the initiative to Beijing and Brussels. In the long term, this could weaken the dollar's position in cross-border settlements if alternative systems, such as China's CBETS, truly begin to form a functional replacement for SWIFT.