Bitcoin under record pressure: whales are buying everything that retail is selling
The market for the first cryptocurrency is experiencing a unique moment. Analytical data indicates that Bitcoin is under the strongest downward pressure ever observed. A key indicator — the share of BTC supply in profit — has dropped to minimal levels, and the pattern typical of previous market cycles has been disrupted.
The volume of Bitcoin supply grows slightly with each cycle. Previously, this formed a long-term trend line where the market traditionally found a bottom. However, in the current cycle, this line has been broken. The market is showing much deeper weakness than in past bearish phases.
Whales Absorb Retail Investors' Supply
Notably, against this pressure, a directly opposite movement is observed from large players. The volume of purchases by whales has reached an all-time high. While retail investors are panicking and dumping coins, leaving the market, large holders are absorbing all the released supply.
Such a divergence in behavior between small and large market participants is a classic scenario for panic phases. Those who survive the current wave of fear and sell-offs will, as history shows, ultimately take it all. The current combination of extreme pressure and record whale buying mirrors the logic of past market bottoms, but in a much more pronounced form.
Why Professionals and Retail See the Same Thing Differently
Interestingly, retail and professional investors interpret the same on-chain data in diametrically opposite ways. Retail focuses on simple and visible metrics: active addresses, transaction count, whale transfers, exchange inflows, and staking yields. These indicators spread quickly on social media and often cause panic.
However, a large whale transfer does not always mean a sale. It could be a collateral movement, a transfer to cold storage, ETF settlements, or internal wallet management. Professionals look deeper — at cost structure and real capital flows: Realized Cap, MVRV, SOPR, ETF flows, and stablecoin liquidity.
In the era of exchange-traded funds, Bitcoin can no longer be analyzed solely by on-chain data. The market is shifting from a model of "price rises first, then money comes in" to the opposite — "money comes in first, then price rises." The key today is not just to see the data, but to interpret it correctly.
My analysis: The current situation is a classic example of "retail capitulation." While retail investors give in to emotions, whales and institutions are increasing their positions. The break of the multi-year trend line is a serious signal, but the record whale buying suggests they see fundamental undervaluation. The key question is not whether the price will fall further, but who will be right in the long term. History teaches that those who buy when others are panicking and selling are the ones who are right.