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The U.S. Senate passed a bill that introduces a direct ban on the issuance of a digital dollar (CBDC) by the Federal Reserve until 2030. The decision was supported by 85 senators, with only five opposing. The document now must pass through the House of Representatives and receive the signature of President Donald Trump.

Political Context and Mechanism of the Ban

The CBDC ban was embedded in the affordable housing bill — the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act. This is an unconventional legislative maneuver that allows Republicans to significantly expedite the adoption of the rule, bypassing lengthy procedures. The amendment directly prohibits the Fed from "issuing or creating a central bank digital currency, as well as any digital asset substantially similar to a CBDC," both directly and through intermediaries or financial institutions. Notably, at the time of the vote, the Fed was not conducting any practical work on the digital dollar.

This initiative legislatively codifies the course that Trump outlined back in January 2025 with his executive order. At that time, he called the digital dollar a threat to "the stability of the financial system, the privacy of citizens, and the sovereignty of the United States."

The Main Argument of Opponents: Not Technology, but Control

The key objection from conservatives is not against digital money as such, but against the state architecture of its circulation. If the Fed issues a CBDC directly, the state technically gains access to all transactions in real-time. This is why Trump's supporters view the CBDC not just as a new form of the dollar, but as a potential tool for financial surveillance. The Chinese model of the digital yuan (e-CNY) is often cited as a clear example, where the state has much broader capabilities to control money flows.

It is important to understand that private stablecoins will not replace state-issued digital currency, as they solve fundamentally different problems. Stablecoins like USDT remain instruments of the private market, whereas a CBDC is part of the monetary system and a tool for controlling money circulation.

Economic Aspect: Why Banks Oppose CBDC

Beyond privacy concerns, opponents of the CBDC also have a structural economic argument. If citizens can hold money directly in Fed digital wallets, some deposits will inevitably leave commercial banks, undermining the foundation of their lending activities. This is why the Trump administration is betting on private dollar stablecoins. This approach allows maintaining the dollar's dominance in the digital economy without a radical overhaul of the existing financial system.

Both Fed chairs have consistently opposed the digital dollar. Jerome Powell stated that even with a CBDC launch, management would be transferred to commercial banks. His successor, Kevin Warsh, called the digital dollar a "mistaken policy decision."

Global Context: China and the EU Go Their Own Way

While the U.S. blocks a state-issued digital currency, other key players are actively scaling their projects. By November 2025, the volume of payments in China's e-CNY reached 16.7 trillion yuan ($2.37 trillion), with 3.48 billion transactions processed. The number of personal wallets reached 230 million, and corporate wallets reached 18.84 million. In June 2026, the People's Bank of China connected 26 banks from Singapore, Thailand, the UAE, Qatar, Brazil, and other countries to the cross-border system CBETS.

If current integration rates for CBETS are maintained, it could form a partial functional alternative to SWIFT in certain corridors within five years — primarily in settlements between countries interested in reducing dependence on dollar infrastructure. As of January 1, 2026, e-CNY transitioned to version 2.0, where retail balances became liabilities of commercial banks, allowing them to be used for fractional reserve and lending. Essentially, Beijing is creating a hybrid model that prevents capital outflows from banks and is compatible with the existing financial infrastructure.

In turn, the European Central Bank completed the preparatory phase of the digital euro in October 2025. Pilot testing is scheduled for the second half of 2027, with a large-scale launch planned for 2029.

Analytical Conclusion

The CBDC ban in the U.S. neither weakens nor directly strengthens the dollar's position. This decision codifies a fundamental difference in approaches: Washington is betting on private innovative infrastructure, while Beijing is developing a centralized model with a high level of state control over transactions. In my view, in the long term, such strategic divergence could lead to fragmentation of the global financial system, where the dollar maintains dominance in the private sector but cedes ground in state settlements to alternative CBDC infrastructures.