Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: Strategy's strategy is cracking at the seams
The bitcoin market has once again entered a zone of uncertainty. Despite local attempts at growth, the key level of $66,000 remains an insurmountable barrier. As my observations show, the current consolidation of BTC is not just a technical pause, but a reflection of deep problems in the financing structure of one of the largest institutional holders of cryptocurrency — the company Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).
An analysis of the situation indicates that a move above $66,000 will not occur until the crisis with STRC preferred shares is resolved. This instrument, which traditionally served as an engine for accumulating bitcoins, is now showing a serious crack. In my view, a breakout above $66,000 will trigger a new rally, but without restoring confidence in STRC, this scenario remains in question.
The Problem with the Strategy Model: STRC Shares Fall Below Par
The key problem lies in the decline of the price of STRC preferred shares below their par value of $100. In a recent analysis, I noted that this instrument, which previously allowed Strategy to raise capital for buying BTC, is now working against it. When STRC trades around $88–$89, the effective yield for holders approaches 13%, making the issuance of new shares extremely unprofitable.
On June 22, STRC reached a record low of $82.53 — almost 17% below par. The consequences for the bitcoin accumulation model are obvious: Strategy receives less funds from each issuance but is obligated to pay dividends based on the full par value. This is a direct blow to the "issued STRC — bought BTC" mechanism.
Chain Reaction: How This Impacts Bitcoin
As I see it, the consequences form a dangerous chain. The company has already suspended the issuance of new shares through the market program and, for the first time, was forced to sell some bitcoins to pay dividends. If STRC ceases to be a convenient financing channel, Strategy has fewer simple ways to increase its BTC holdings without using common shares, debt, or cash reserves.
It is important to emphasize: this is not a story about the complete collapse of Strategy. The bitcoin treasury flywheel works perfectly when capital is cheap. But when the market starts demanding over 13% for financing, the structure becomes fragile. Until STRC returns to par, each new issuance will weaken the company's position and, consequently, restrain bitcoin's growth potential.
My conclusion: Without resolving the STRC issue, bitcoin is unlikely to confidently establish itself above $66,000. Investors should closely monitor the dynamics of these shares — they have become a new barometer of the entire market's health. As long as Strategy's financing mechanism malfunctions, the bullish scenario remains in question.