Bitcoin veterans have frozen sales: a signal of a market turnaround?
The cohort of long-term Bitcoin holders, known as OG (Original Gangsters) — investors who have held their coins for over five years — has almost completely stopped taking profits. On-chain data analysis shows a sharp decline in sales volumes from this group, fundamentally changing the balance of power in the market.
Record Calm: OG Sales Drop to a Minimum
According to the latest data, the 90-day moving average of spent coin volume among veterans has dropped to 962 BTC. This is the lowest level since November 2024. Essentially, holders with an average entry price of around $63,200 (close to current quotes) have preferred a holding strategy over realizing profits. In doing so, they have virtually eliminated one of the key factors of selling pressure.
To assess the activity of this group, the STXO (Spent Transaction Output) metric is used, which tracks the movement of old coins on the network. The current market cycle has already seen three of the largest waves of profit-taking from OGs in history:
- May 2024: the average reached 3,860 BTC.
- February 2025: volumes amounted to 3,200 BTC.
- September 2025: the value settled at 2,360 BTC.
It is important to understand that on individual days of these peaks, movement volumes exceeded 10,000, 30,000, and even 142,000 BTC. The current decline to 962 BTC is not just a correction, but a qualitative change in the behavior of the market's most resilient participants.
Weakening Pressure and a Technical Signal
The decline in activity among long-term investors removes a critical factor of excess supply. Now, Bitcoin's price depends much more on short-term demand and the positions of traders in the derivatives market. Such a lull from the "old guard" often precedes a period of consolidation or a continuation of the current trend, and I am inclined to view this as a moderately positive signal.
Notably, this coincides with another rare technical event. For the first time in three years, Bitcoin's price has approached the lower boundary of the Power Law model — a mathematical model that describes the asset's long-term trajectory through logarithmic lines. Previously, touching this zone only occurred during deep bear markets.
My View
The coincidence of two factors — veterans refraining from selling near the breakeven level and the price returning to a historically strong support level — looks extremely promising. This is not a guarantee of immediate growth, but a powerful fundamental and technical argument that current levels are a zone of accumulation, not distribution. A market freed from pressure by the "smartest money" becomes much more sensitive to bullish impulses.