Bitcoin veterans fall silent: OG sales have plummeted to record lows — what this means for the market
Investors holding Bitcoin for more than five years have almost completely stopped selling. This category of market participants, known as OG (veterans), is exhibiting unique behavior: their profit-taking activity has dropped to levels not seen since the end of 2024.
According to on-chain analytics data, the 90-day moving average of spent coins among long-term holders has fallen to 962 BTC. This sharp slowdown in selling indicates that at current Bitcoin prices, market veterans prefer to hold onto their assets rather than dispose of them. Thus, the selling pressure from this group has significantly weakened.
Historical Peaks in Profit-Taking
The current market cycle has already seen record sales volumes from OGs in history. Analysts use the STXO (Spent Transaction Output) metric, which tracks the movement of old Bitcoins on the network. The movement of such coins typically precedes their subsequent sale.
In the study, the OG category includes investors with a holding period of five years or more. Their activity can cause strong price fluctuations. Notably, the average purchase price of assets for this group is around $63,200, which practically matches current market quotes.
The 90-day moving average chart clearly shows three major profit-taking peaks, each formed after powerful waves of cryptocurrency growth:
- May 2024 — the average figure was 3,860 BTC.
- February 2025 — volumes reached 3,200 BTC.
- September 2025 — the value was recorded at 2,360 BTC.
It is important to understand that the three-month averages may seem relatively small. However, on individual days, movement volumes exceeded 10,000, 30,000, and even 142,000 BTC, indicating high volatility in the moment.
Weakening Seller Pressure and a Technical Signal
Currently, the average 90-day spending volume of OG participants has fallen below 1,000 coins and settled at 962 BTC. This is the lowest value since the end of autumn 2024. Industry veterans prefer not to sell Bitcoin at current prices, which significantly reduces market pressure.
The decline in long-term investor activity removes an important factor of excess supply. With a reduced inflow of old coins, the price becomes more dependent on short-term demand. The influence of trader positions in the derivatives market also increases. This lull likely foreshadows a period of consolidation or a continuation of the current trend.
The reduction in sales coincided with another notable technical factor. Popular analyst sunnydecree noted a rare signal on the cryptocurrency chart. For the first time in three years, the Bitcoin price approached the lower support boundary of the Power Law model. Previously, the price touched this zone only during a deep bear market.
The coincidence of these factors looks very promising. First, the oldest participants do not want to lock in profits near the breakeven level. Second, the price has returned to a historically strong support level.
My analysis: The behavior of large holders is a moderately positive signal for the market. However, the complete absence of sales from OGs does not guarantee immediate growth. Rather, it creates a foundation for a more sustainable upward move if short-term demand remains stable. The key factor now becomes the activity of retail investors and institutional players.