Bitcoin veterans have frozen sales: is the market preparing for a reversal?
Investors who have held Bitcoin for over five years have almost completely stopped selling their holdings. These market participants, known in the crypto community as OGs (veterans), are showing a record decline in activity, fundamentally shifting the balance of power in the market.
According to on-chain metric monitoring, the 90-day moving average of spent coins from this group has dropped to 962 BTC. This is the lowest level since November 2024. At the current BTC price, long-term holders are consciously choosing a strategy of holding rather than taking profits. Thus, they are significantly reducing selling pressure, creating a supply shortage of "old" coins.
Historical Selling Peaks and Current Calm
The current market cycle has already seen the largest sell-off of coins by veterans in history. For analysis, experts use the STXO (Spent Transaction Output) metric, which tracks the movement of old Bitcoins on the network. Typically, the movement of such coins indicates their subsequent sale.
In the study, the OG cohort includes investors with a holding period of five years or more. Their activity can cause significant fluctuations in the market price. The peak purchase price of assets for this group was around $63,200, roughly matching current market quotes.
The 90-day moving average chart clearly shows three major profit-taking peaks. All of them formed after powerful waves of cryptocurrency growth.
Largest profit-taking waves:
- May 2024 — the average was 3,860 BTC.
- February 2025 — volumes reached 3,200 BTC.
- September 2025 — the value was recorded at 2,360 BTC.
The three-month averages may seem relatively small. However, on individual days, movement volumes exceeded 10,000, 30,000, and even 142,000 BTC.
Weakening Selling Pressure and a New Signal
Currently, the average 90-day spending volume of OG participants has fallen below 1,000 coins, settling at 962 BTC. This is the lowest level since late autumn 2024. Industry veterans prefer not to sell Bitcoin at current prices, reducing market pressure.
The decline in long-term investor activity removes an important factor of excess supply. Conversely, with a reduced inflow of old coins, the price becomes more dependent on short-term demand. The influence of trader positions in the derivatives market also increases. This calm likely heralds a period of consolidation or a continuation of the current trend. Thus, the behavior of large holders can be considered a moderately positive signal.
Technical Context: The Lower Bound of Power Law
The reduction in selling coincides with another notable technical factor. Popular analyst sunnydecree noticed a rare signal on the cryptocurrency chart. For the first time in three years, the Bitcoin price approached the lower support boundary of the Power Law model. This mathematical model describes the asset's long-term trajectory through logarithmic lines. Previously, the price touched this zone only during a deep bear market.
The coincidence of these factors looks very promising. First, the oldest participants are unwilling to take profits near the breakeven level. Second, the price has returned to historically strong support.
My analysis: The sharp decline in OG investor activity, combined with testing the lower bound of Power Law, is a classic accumulation signal. The market has essentially "washed out" weak hands, and now bulls have every chance for a new impulse. However, macroeconomic risks should not be discounted — without a catalyst, consolidation could drag on.