Bitcoin veterans have frozen sales: what lies behind the sharp decline in long-term holder activity
Long-term Bitcoin holders, known in the community as OGs (market veterans), have almost completely stopped realizing their accumulated holdings. On-chain data analysis shows that the 90-day moving average of the spent output volume from this group of investors has dropped to 962 BTC — the lowest level since November 2024. This signals a drastic shift in sentiment among those who have held the asset for over five years.
The current market cycle has already gone down in history as a period of the most massive coin distribution by veterans. To assess their activity, I use the STXO (Spent Transaction Output) metric, which tracks the movement of "old" Bitcoins on the network. Typically, the movement of such coins inevitably leads to their subsequent sale. However, we are now witnessing the opposite process — a sharp slowdown.
The key entry point for this group of investors is around $63,200, which almost coincides with current market prices. This means that at the current price, veterans do not see sufficient motivation to lock in profits. The 90-day moving average chart clearly shows three sell-off peaks: May 2024 (3,860 BTC), February 2025 (3,200 BTC), and September 2025 (2,360 BTC). On certain days, movement volumes exceeded 10,000, 30,000, and even 142,000 BTC, highlighting the scale of previous waves.
Declining Seller Pressure and the Power Law Technical Signal
The current drop in long-term holder activity below the 1,000 coin mark is not just a statistical anomaly but a significant fundamental shift. The removal of excess supply from "old" coins significantly eases pressure on the market. Bitcoin's price now depends more on short-term demand and trader positions in the derivatives market. Such a lull typically precedes either a period of consolidation or a continuation of the current trend.
Notably, this coincides with a rare technical signal. For the first time in three years, Bitcoin's price has approached the lower support boundary of the Power Law model — a mathematical model describing the asset's long-term trajectory through logarithmic lines. Previously, touching this zone only occurred during deep "bear" markets. The convergence of two factors — veterans refraining from selling and a return to historically strong support — looks extremely promising.
My conclusion: The behavior of the largest holders can be considered a moderately positive signal. They are not locking in losses and are not rushing to take profits near the breakeven level. This indicates faith in the asset's long-term potential and reduces the risks of a sharp crash caused by mass distribution from "old" coins. However, it should not be forgotten that the market remains vulnerable to volatility driven by short-term speculators.