Bitcoin veterans have frozen sales: is the market preparing for a reversal?
Investors who have held Bitcoin for more than five years have almost completely stopped selling. These market participants, known as OGs (veterans), have sharply reduced their activity, fundamentally changing the balance of power in the market.
According to my analysis of on-chain data, the 90-day moving average of the spent coin volume for this group has dropped to 962 BTC. This is the lowest value since November 2024. At the current BTC price, long-term holders are consciously choosing a strategy of holding rather than taking profits. Thus, they are significantly weakening the selling pressure that previously had a substantial impact on the price.
Historical Sales Peaks and the Current Lull
The current market cycle has already seen record volumes of coin dumps by veterans. For my analysis, I use the STXO (Spent Transaction Output) metric, which tracks the movement of old Bitcoins on the network. The movement of such coins typically precedes their subsequent sale.
In this study, I classify investors with a holding period of five years or more as OGs. Their activity can cause strong price fluctuations. The average purchase price of assets for this group is around $63,200, which is almost in line with current market quotes.
The 90-day moving average chart clearly shows three major profit-taking peaks, each formed after powerful waves of cryptocurrency growth:
- May 2024 — the average figure was 3,860 BTC.
- February 2025 — volumes reached 3,200 BTC.
- September 2025 — the value was recorded at 2,360 BTC.
It is important to understand that the three-month averages may seem relatively small. However, on individual days, movement volumes exceeded 10,000, 30,000, and even 142,000 BTC.
Weakening Selling Pressure and Changing Drivers
Currently, the average 90-day spending volume of OG participants has fallen below 1,000 coins and settled at 962 BTC. This is the lowest value since late autumn 2024. Industry veterans prefer not to sell Bitcoin at current prices, which drastically reduces market pressure.
The decline in long-term investor activity removes an important factor of excess supply. Now, the price is more dependent on short-term demand. At the same time, the influence of trader positions in the derivatives market is increasing. This lull likely heralds a period of consolidation or a continuation of the current trend. I consider the behavior of large holders to be a moderately positive signal.
Technical Signal: Trading at the Lower Boundary of the Power Law
The reduction in sales coincides with another notable technical factor. Renowned analyst sunnydecree noticed a rare signal on the cryptocurrency chart. For the first time in three years, the Bitcoin price has approached the lower support boundary of the Power Law model. This mathematical model describes the asset's long-term trajectory through logarithmic lines. Previously, the price touched this zone only during deep bear markets.
My expert opinion: The coincidence of these two factors—the halt in veteran sales and the testing of historically strong support—looks very promising. Firstly, the oldest participants are unwilling to lock in profits near the breakeven level. Secondly, the price has returned to a zone that previously served as a bottom for major cycles. This creates a foundation for a potential reversal or, at the very least, a strong bounce.