OpenAI introduces ads in ChatGPT: betting on $100 billion by 2030 and a cold shower in Cannes
OpenAI made a bold move by appearing for the first time at the prestigious Cannes Lions advertising festival. The company introduced its new strategy to the world: integrating advertising into ChatGPT. However, judging by the reaction of leading global marketers, this debut was far from triumphant. Many heads of advertising agencies expressed skepticism, doubting that OpenAI has the necessary tools for targeting and analytics to compete on equal footing with a giant like Google.
Ambitions Backed by Numbers
The head of OpenAI's advertising division, David Dohan, who previously held a senior position at Meta, stated that the company sees advertising as one of its key revenue sources. According to his estimates, about 20% of all queries to ChatGPT have a pronounced commercial interest. The most promising sectors for monetization are tourism, retail, healthcare, the beauty industry, and financial services.
The figures OpenAI presented to investors are indeed impressive: the company promises to bring advertising revenue to $100 billion by 2030. For comparison, this is roughly half of Meta's current annual advertising revenue. However, in my opinion, this is more of an ambitious declaration of intent than a realistic forecast. The advertising market is not just about placing banners; it is a complex ecosystem of measurable conversions, and OpenAI has yet to demonstrate proven effectiveness here.
Storm of Discontent and Departure of a Key Employee
The cold reception in Cannes was expected. As early as spring, the launch of advertising tests in ChatGPT sparked a wave of criticism from users. Paid subscribers reacted particularly sharply, rightly believing that paying for the service should exempt them from ads. The situation was exacerbated by the departure of OpenAI researcher Zoe Hitzig, who publicly accused the company of collecting "the most detailed archive of private human thoughts" and attempting to monetize it in a way that users would not be able to recognize manipulation.
Competitors were quick to seize the opportunity. Anthropic, the creator of Claude, released an ad mocking intrusive advertising in chatbots, positioning its product as "clean" and free from promotional integrations. In response, Sam Altman called Claude an "expensive toy for the rich," but this does not negate the fact that reputational damage to OpenAI has already been done.
IPO as a Point of No Return
Against this backdrop, OpenAI is preparing for an initial public offering (IPO), targeting a valuation above $1 trillion. Given that the company spent $34 billion last year and remains unprofitable, advertising is not just an experiment but a vital source of funding. Success in Cannes was supposed to attract advertisers and convince investors. Instead, it only highlighted the main problem: OpenAI has an audience but lacks the tools to effectively work with it in an advertising context.
Cryptalist Analyst Opinion: While OpenAI tries to simultaneously please users, maintain its reputation as a "safe" AI, and earn money from advertising, it risks losing all three. The market is waiting not just for advertisements but for a fundamentally new model of interaction with brands in the era of generative AI. And if OpenAI cannot offer it, more agile competitors will take its place in the sun.