Bitcoin veterans have frozen sales: is the market preparing for a surge?
Key Bitcoin holders, the so-called "OGs"—investors who have held their coins for over five years—have virtually stopped selling. This is not just a statistic, but a powerful signal of a shift in market paradigm.
According to my on-chain data analysis, the 90-day moving average of the volume of coins spent by veterans has dropped to 962 BTC. This is the lowest level since November 2024. Essentially, long-term holders, whose average purchase price is around $63,200, have decided that current levels are not worth taking profits. They prefer to hold, meaning selling pressure from this market segment has sharply weakened.
Historical Peaks and Current Calm
The current cycle has already gone down in history as a period of the most massive coin dumping by veterans. For assessment, I use the STXO (Spent Transaction Output) metric, which tracks the movement of "old" Bitcoins. The three largest profit-taking peaks occurred in:
- May 2024: the average reached 3,860 BTC.
- February 2025: volumes amounted to 3,200 BTC.
- September 2025: the value settled at 2,360 BTC.
It is important to understand: although the three-month averages seem modest, on individual days, movement volumes exceeded 10,000, 30,000, and even 142,000 BTC. The current decline to 962 BTC is not just a drop, but a complete halt in the activity of "old blood."
Weakening Pressure and Technical Signal
The decline in activity among long-term investors removes one of the most important factors of excess supply. Now, Bitcoin's price is much more dependent on short-term demand and trader positions in the derivatives market. This creates conditions for consolidation or, in a favorable scenario, for a resumption of the upward trend.
Notably, this coincides with another rare technical signal. Popular analyst sunnydecree noted that for the first time in three years, Bitcoin's price has approached the lower support boundary of the Power Law model. Previously, touching this zone only occurred during deep bear markets. Now, with OGs having stopped selling and the price at a historically strong support level, we are observing an extremely promising combination of factors.
My opinion: the behavior of veterans is a moderately positive signal. They see no point in selling at these levels, which indicates faith in the asset's long-term potential. However, the market has now become more sensitive to the actions of "whales" and short-term speculators. The calm from the OGs could precede either a period of consolidation or a sharp upward move if sufficient buying demand emerges.