Bitcoin veterans go silent: OG sales drop to a minimum — what this means for the market
Investors holding Bitcoin for more than five years — so-called OGs (market veterans) — have virtually stopped selling. This is a crucial signal indicating a shift in sentiment among the most steadfast participants in the crypto community.
According to my on-chain data analysis, the 90-day moving average of the volume of spent coins from this group has dropped to 962 BTC. This is the lowest level since November 2024. At the current Bitcoin price, long-term holders are choosing a strategy of holding rather than taking profits. Thus, they are significantly reducing selling pressure on the market.
Historical Selling Peaks: What We Have Already Seen
The current market cycle has seen the most massive sell-off of coins by veterans in history. For my analysis, I use the STXO (Spent Transaction Output) metric, which tracks the movement of old Bitcoins on the network. Typically, the movement of such coins implies their subsequent sale.
In my research, I categorize investors with a holding period of five years or more as OGs. Their activity can cause strong fluctuations in the market price. The peak purchase cost of assets for this group was around $63,200 — a level roughly corresponding to current market quotes.
The 90-day moving average chart clearly shows three major profit-taking peaks that formed after powerful waves of cryptocurrency growth:
- May 2024 — the average figure was 3,860 BTC.
- February 2025 — volumes reached 3,200 BTC.
- September 2025 — the value was recorded at 2,360 BTC.
The three-month averaged values may seem relatively small. However, on certain days, the volumes of movements exceeded 10,000, 30,000, and even 142,000 BTC. This underscores how significant the selling waves were.
Weakening Selling Pressure: A Bullish Signal?
Currently, the average 90-day spending volume of OG participants has fallen below 1,000 coins, settling at 962 BTC. This is the lowest value since late autumn 2024. Industry veterans prefer not to sell Bitcoin at current prices, which reduces market pressure.
The decline in long-term investor activity removes an important factor of excess supply. Conversely, when the inflow of old coins decreases, the price becomes more dependent on short-term demand. The influence of trader positions in the derivatives market also increases. This lull likely heralds a period of consolidation or a continuation of the current trend. Thus, the behavior of large holders can be considered a moderately positive signal.
Technical Context: Power Law Support
The reduction in selling coincides with another notable technical factor. Popular analyst sunnydecree noted a rare signal on the cryptocurrency chart. For the first time in three years, the Bitcoin price approached the lower support boundary of the Power Law model. This mathematical model describes the asset's long-term trajectory through logarithmic lines. Previously, the price touched this zone only during a deep bear market.
My conclusion: The coincidence of these factors — the halt in OG selling and the return of the price to historically strong support — looks very promising. The oldest participants do not want to lock in profits near the breakeven level, and the price has returned to a zone that historically preceded reversals. This creates a foundation for potential growth, although the market remains in a phase of uncertainty.