Bitcoin veterans have stopped selling: signal analysis and hidden opportunities
A key group of market participants—investors holding Bitcoin for more than five years—have almost completely stopped taking profits. These players, known in the community as OGs (veterans), are exhibiting rare behavior that directly impacts the balance of supply and demand.
According to my analysis of on-chain data, the 90-day moving average of spent coins from this cohort has dropped to 962 BTC. This is the lowest level since November 2024. At the current BTC price, long-term holders are consciously choosing a strategy of holding rather than selling, which significantly eases selling pressure on the market.
Historical Sales Records and the Current Cycle
The current market cycle has already seen the largest sell-off of coins by veterans in history. To assess this movement, I use the STXO (Spent Transaction Output) metric, which tracks the movement of old Bitcoins on the network. Typically, the movement of such coins precedes their subsequent sale.
During this cycle, we observed three major peaks in profit-taking, which formed after powerful waves of growth:
- May 2024 — the average figure was 3,860 BTC.
- February 2025 — volumes reached 3,200 BTC.
- September 2025 — the value was recorded at 2,360 BTC.
It is important to understand: although the three-month averages may seem relatively small, on individual days, movement volumes exceeded 10,000, 30,000, and even 142,000 BTC. The current decline to 962 BTC is not just a correction but a fundamental shift in sentiment.
Weakening Seller Pressure
Currently, the average 90-day spending volume of OG participants has fallen below 1,000 coins. The figure stands at 962 BTC—the lowest level since late autumn 2024. Industry veterans prefer not to sell Bitcoin at current prices, eliminating a key factor of excess supply.
Consequently, the decline in long-term investor activity makes the price more dependent on short-term demand and trader positions in the derivatives market. This lull likely heralds a period of consolidation or a continuation of the current trend. The behavior of large holders can be considered a moderately positive signal.
Trading at the Lower Boundary of the Power Law Model
The reduction in sales coincides with another notable technical factor. Popular analyst sunnydecree noted a rare signal on the chart: for the first time in three years, the Bitcoin price approached the lower support boundary of the Power Law model. This mathematical model describes the asset's long-term trajectory through logarithmic lines. Previously, the price touched this zone only during deep bear markets.
The coincidence of these two factors—the halt in veteran selling and the return of the price to historically strong support—looks very promising.
My expert opinion: The combination of long-term holders ceasing profit-taking and testing the lower boundary of the Power Law creates a fundamental basis for a potential reversal. However, investors should remember that the market remains influenced by macroeconomic factors and liquidity. The current situation is more of an accumulation zone than a signal for immediate growth.