Bitcoin veterans have frozen: sales have dropped to a minimum — what this means for the market
Long-term Bitcoin holders, known in the community as OGs (market veterans), have virtually stopped selling their assets. According to my on-chain data analysis, the 90-day moving average of the volume of coins spent by these participants has dropped to 962 BTC — the lowest level since late autumn 2024.
This sharp slowdown in activity from investors holding coins for more than five years indicates a shift in their strategy. At current prices, which are near their average entry price (~$63,200), veterans prefer not to lock in profits but to continue holding positions. This significantly reduces seller pressure on the market.
Historical Context of OG Sales
The current market cycle has already seen record volumes of coin dumping by this group. To assess their behavior, I use the STXO (Spent Transaction Output) metric, which tracks the movement of old Bitcoins. Typically, the movement of such coins signals subsequent selling.
The 90-day moving average chart clearly shows three major profit-taking peaks, each following powerful waves of growth:
- May 2024 — the average reached 3,860 BTC.
- February 2025 — volumes amounted to 3,200 BTC.
- September 2025 — the value was recorded at 2,360 BTC.
It is important to understand that while the three-month averages seem relatively modest, on individual days, movement volumes exceeded 10,000, 30,000, and even 142,000 BTC. This indicates high volatility in the moment, but the overall trend is now one of decline.
Reduced Pressure and Technical Signal
The drop in the average to 962 BTC is not just a statistic. It represents the removal of a significant factor of excess supply. Now, Bitcoin's price will depend more heavily on short-term demand and trader positions in the derivatives market. I view this lull from the "old blood" as a moderately positive signal, foreshadowing either consolidation or a continuation of the current trend.
Notably, the reduction in sales coincides with another rare technical event. Bitcoin's price has approached the lower support boundary of the Power Law model for the first time in three years. Previously, touching this zone only occurred during deep bear markets. The coincidence of these two factors — veterans' reluctance to sell near the breakeven level and a return to historically strong support — looks very promising.
My conclusion: The behavior of long-term holders is now a key indicator. If they see no reason to lock in profits at current prices, it speaks to confidence in the asset's long-term potential. The market is likely in an accumulation phase, and any significant downward move may be met with aggressive buying interest from these experienced players.