Bitcoin veterans have frozen sales: a signal of a market reversal?
Investors holding Bitcoin for more than five years — so-called OGs or market veterans — have almost completely stopped realizing their assets. The 90-day moving average of the volume of coins they spent has dropped to 962 BTC, the lowest level since November 2024. At current price levels, long-term holders prefer a holding strategy, thereby significantly weakening selling pressure.
This market cycle has already gone down in history as a period of the largest-scale coin dumping by veterans. For analysis, experts use the STXO metric, which tracks the movement of old Bitcoins on the network. Typically, the movement of such coins implies their subsequent sale.
Historical Sales Records: Three Waves of Profit Taking
During the current cycle, three major profit-taking peaks stand out clearly, each formed after powerful waves of cryptocurrency growth:
- May 2024 — the average was 3,860 BTC.
- February 2025 — volumes reached 3,200 BTC.
- September 2025 — the value was recorded at 2,360 BTC.
Although the three-month averages may seem relatively small, on individual days, movement volumes exceeded 10,000, 30,000, and even 142,000 BTC. This indicates high volatility in the behavior of long-term investors.
Weakening Seller Pressure: What Does It Mean for the Market?
Currently, the average 90-day spending volume of OG participants has fallen below 1,000 coins, settling at 962 BTC. This is the lowest level since late autumn 2024. Industry veterans prefer not to sell Bitcoin at current prices, which reduces market pressure.
The decline in long-term investor activity removes an important factor of excess supply. With a reduced inflow of old coins, the price becomes more dependent on short-term demand. The influence of trader positions in the derivatives market also increases. This lull likely heralds a period of consolidation or a continuation of the current trend.
Technical Signal: Approaching the Lower Boundary of the Power Law
The reduction in sales coincides with another notable technical factor. For the first time in three years, the Bitcoin price has approached the lower support boundary of the Power Law model. This mathematical model describes the asset's long-term trajectory through logarithmic lines. Previously, the price touched this zone only during a deep bear market.
Expert Opinion: The coincidence of these two factors — the halt in sales by veterans and the approach to historically strong support — looks very promising. This could indicate that the market is finding a bottom or preparing for a new impulse. However, investors should remember that consolidation at such levels may be prolonged, and the final direction of movement will be determined by the macroeconomic backdrop and liquidity inflow.