Bitcoin veterans have frozen sales: what lies behind the new market signal
Bitcoin long-term holders, known in the community as OGs (market veterans), have almost completely stopped selling their assets. This behavior is being recorded for the first time since autumn 2024 and indicates a shift in sentiment among the most experienced participants.
According to analytics, the 90-day moving average of spent coin volume among investors holding BTC for more than five years has dropped to 962. Such values were last seen in November 2024. At the current bitcoin price, long-term holders prefer a holding strategy rather than profit-taking, which significantly reduces seller pressure on the market.
Historical Profit-Taking Peaks Are Behind Us
The current market cycle has already seen record volumes of coin dumps by veterans in history. Analysts use the STXO (Spent Transaction Output) metric, which tracks the movement of old coins on the network. Typically, the movement of such assets signals subsequent selling.
In the study, the OG category includes investors with a holding period of five years or more. Their activity can cause strong price fluctuations. The average purchase price for this group is around $63,200, which roughly corresponds to current market quotes.
The 90-day moving average chart clearly shows three major profit-taking peaks, all formed after powerful waves of cryptocurrency growth:
- May 2024 — the average figure was 3,860 BTC.
- February 2025 — volumes reached 3,200 BTC.
- September 2025 — the value was recorded at 2,360 BTC.
Although the three-month averaged figures look relatively modest, on individual days, movement volumes exceeded 10,000, 30,000, and even 142,000 BTC.
Weakening Seller Pressure and a Technical Signal
Currently, the average 90-day spending volume of OG participants has fallen below 1,000 coins, settling at 962 BTC. This is the lowest value since late autumn 2024. Industry veterans prefer not to sell bitcoins at current prices, which removes an important factor of excess supply.
With a decline in the inflow of old coins, the price becomes more dependent on short-term demand. The influence of trader positions in the derivatives market also increases. This lull likely heralds a period of consolidation or a continuation of the current trend. The behavior of large holders can be considered a moderately positive signal.
Trading at the Lower Boundary of the Power Law Model
The reduction in selling coincides with another notable technical factor. Popular analyst sunnydecree noted a rare signal on the cryptocurrency chart. For the first time in three years, the bitcoin price approached the lower support boundary of the Power Law model. This mathematical model describes the asset's long-term trajectory through logarithmic lines. Previously, the price touched this zone only during a deep bear market.
The coincidence of these factors looks very promising. Firstly, the oldest participants do not want to take profits near the breakeven level. Secondly, the price has returned to historically strong support.
Expert opinion from Cryptalist: The decline in OG activity is not just statistics, but a clear signal that the market has entered an accumulation phase. Veterans who have survived more than one cycle see no point in selling at current levels, creating a solid foundation for the next upward move. If we add to this the test of the lower boundary of the Power Law, we get a rare combination of bullish factors that historically preceded significant growth.