Bitcoin veterans have frozen sales: a signal of a market reversal?
Long-term Bitcoin holders, who have owned coins for more than five years, have almost completely stopped taking profits. This category of participants, known in the community as OGs (veterans), is demonstrating rare patience, which is fundamentally changing the balance of power in the market.
Analysis of on-chain data shows that the 90-day moving average of the volume of spent coins by this group has dropped to 962 BTC. This is the lowest value since November 2024. At current BTC prices, veterans are choosing a strategy of holding rather than selling, which significantly eases selling pressure.
Historical Sales Peaks Are Behind Us
The current market cycle has already gone down in history as a period of the most massive coin dumping by OGs. The STXO (Spent Transaction Output) metric is used for analysis, which tracks the movement of old Bitcoins. Typically, the movement of such coins precedes their subsequent sale.
In the study, the OG cohort includes investors with a holding period of five years or more. Their activity can cause strong price fluctuations. The average purchase price of assets for this group was around $63,200, which roughly corresponds to current market prices.
The 90-day moving average chart clearly shows three major profit-taking peaks that formed after powerful growth waves:
- May 2024 — the average figure was 3,860 BTC.
- February 2025 — volumes reached 3,200 BTC.
- September 2025 — the value was recorded at 2,360 BTC.
Although the three-month averages may seem relatively small, on individual days, movement volumes exceeded 10,000, 30,000, and even 142,000 BTC.
Easing of Seller Pressure
Currently, the average 90-day spending volume of OG participants has fallen below 1,000 coins, settling at 962 BTC. This is the lowest figure since the fall of 2024. Industry veterans prefer not to sell Bitcoin at current prices, which reduces market pressure.
The decline in activity among long-term investors removes an important factor of excess supply. With a reduced inflow of old coins, the price becomes more dependent on short-term demand. The influence of trader positions in the derivatives market also increases. This lull likely heralds a period of consolidation or a continuation of the current trend. Thus, the behavior of large holders can be considered a moderately positive signal.
Trading at the Lower Boundary of the Power Law Model
The reduction in sales coincided with another notable technical factor. Renowned analyst sunnydecree highlighted a rare signal on the cryptocurrency chart. For the first time in three years, the Bitcoin price has approached the lower support boundary of the Power Law model. This mathematical model describes the asset's long-term trajectory through logarithmic lines. Previously, the price touched this zone only during deep bear markets.
The coincidence of these factors looks very promising. First, the oldest participants are unwilling to lock in profits near the breakeven level. Second, the price has returned to historically strong support.
My comment: The behavior of OGs is a classic sign of accumulation. When the most experienced players stop selling even at current prices, the market is often preparing for a new impulse. However, it's worth remembering that the absence of sales by veterans does not guarantee immediate growth — the ball is now in the court of short-term speculators and institutional demand.