Bitcoin veterans have taken a pause: OG sales have dropped to their lowest level since autumn 2024.
Investors holding Bitcoin for more than five years — so-called OGs, or market veterans — have almost completely stopped selling. This trend is recorded at the on-chain data level and indicates a shift in sentiment among the most experienced participants.
Analysis of the STXO (Spent Transaction Output) metric, which tracks the movement of "old" coins on the network, shows a sharp decline in activity among long-term holders. The 90-day moving average of the volume of coins they spent has dropped to 962 BTC. This is the lowest value since November 2024.
Recall that the current market cycle has already seen record sell-off volumes from veterans. The three largest profit-taking peaks occurred in May 2024 (3,860 BTC), February 2025 (3,200 BTC), and September 2025 (2,360 BTC). On certain days, movement volumes exceeded 10,000, 30,000, and even 142,000 BTC. However, the situation has now changed dramatically.
Why have veterans stopped selling?
The average purchase price of Bitcoin for this group of investors is around $63,200. Current quotes are near this level, making profit-taking pointless for them. Instead of selling at prices close to the breakeven point, they prefer to hold their assets.
The reduction in selling pressure is an important signal. It eliminates one of the key factors of excess supply in the market. Now, Bitcoin's price depends more on short-term demand and the positions of traders in the derivatives market. Such a lull often precedes either a period of consolidation or a continuation of the current trend.
Technical context: Power Law and the lower boundary
Notably, the decline in sales coincided with a rare technical signal. For the first time in three years, Bitcoin's price approached the lower support boundary of the Power Law model. Previously, such touches occurred exclusively during deep bear markets.
The coincidence of two factors — the halt in sales by OGs and the testing of historically strong support — looks extremely promising. Veterans do not want to lock in losses or minimal profits, and the price has returned to a zone where significant rallies previously began.
My professional opinion: The behavior of long-term holders is one of the most reliable indicators of a market bottom. If OGs have stopped selling, it means they are either waiting for higher prices or see no reason to exit positions at current levels. Combined with the technical support of the Power Law, this forms a moderately bullish scenario for Bitcoin in the medium term. However, it should not be forgotten that short-term volatility could increase due to reduced liquidity from "old" coins.