Bitcoin veterans have stopped selling: what lies behind this signal?
Investors holding Bitcoin for more than five years — so-called OGs or market veterans — have almost completely stopped selling their assets. This is a notable change in the behavior of the largest long-term holders, which deserves close attention.
According to my analysis of on-chain data, the 90-day moving average of the spent transaction volume for this group has dropped to 962 BTC. This is the lowest value since November 2024. At the current Bitcoin price, long-term investors clearly prefer to hold positions rather than take profits. In doing so, they significantly reduce selling pressure on the market.
Historical Sales Records and Current Calm
The current market cycle has already seen the most massive sell-off of coins by veterans in history. For my analysis, I use the STXO (Spent Transaction Output) metric, which tracks the movement of old Bitcoins on the network. Typically, the movement of such coins precedes their subsequent sale.
In my research, I classify investors with a holding period of five years or more as OGs. Their activity can cause strong price fluctuations. The average purchase price of assets for this group is around $63,200, which roughly corresponds to current market quotes.
The 90-day moving average chart clearly shows three major profit-taking peaks, each formed after powerful waves of growth:
- May 2024 — the average figure was 3,860 BTC.
- February 2025 — volumes reached 3,200 BTC.
- September 2025 — the value was recorded at 2,360 BTC.
Although the three-month averages may seem relatively small, on individual days, movement volumes exceeded 10,000, 30,000, and even 142,000 BTC. This highlights how significant the selling pressure was in the past.
Easing Pressure and New Context
Currently, the average 90-day spending volume of OG participants has fallen below 1,000 coins — to 962 BTC. This is the lowest level since late autumn 2024. Industry veterans prefer not to sell Bitcoin at current prices, which removes an important factor of excess supply from the market.
With a decline in the inflow of old coins, the Bitcoin price begins to depend more heavily on short-term demand. The influence of trader positions in the derivatives market also increases. This calm likely heralds either a period of consolidation or a continuation of the current trend. The behavior of large holders can be considered a moderately positive signal.
Trading at the Lower Bound of the Power Law Model
The reduction in sales coincides with another notable technical factor. Popular analyst sunnydecree recently noted a rare signal on the Bitcoin chart. For the first time in three years, the price approached the lower support boundary of the Power Law model. This mathematical model describes the long-term trajectory of the asset through logarithmic lines. Previously, the price touched this zone only during deep bear markets.
The coincidence of these two factors — the halt in sales by veterans and the testing of historical support — looks very promising. The oldest market participants do not want to take profits near the breakeven level, and the price has returned to historically strong support.
My professional opinion: This combination of on-chain and technical signals indicates that the market may have reached the bottom of a local correction. If short-term demand persists, we could see the formation of a new upward phase. However, for now, the key remains monitoring the inflow volume of old coins — any increase could change the picture.