Bitcoin veterans have frozen sales: is the market preparing for a phase shift?
Investors holding Bitcoin for more than five years — the so-called OGs (market veterans) — have almost completely stopped liquidating their holdings. This is a key signal indicating a fundamental shift in sentiment among the "old guard" of the crypto community.
According to on-chain analytics data, the 90-day moving average of the volume of coins spent by these participants has dropped to 962 BTC. The last time such values were recorded was in November 2024. At the current price of the leading cryptocurrency, long-term holders are consciously choosing a strategy of holding rather than taking profits. This significantly reduces selling pressure, which previously had a substantial impact on price dynamics.
Historical Profit-Taking Peaks and the Current Lull
The current market cycle has already seen the largest-scale sell-off of coins by veterans in history. The analysis uses the STXO (Spent Transaction Output) metric, which tracks the movement of "old" Bitcoins. Typically, the movement of such coins implies their subsequent sale. The peak average purchase price for this group was around $63,200, which roughly corresponds to current market quotes.
The 90-day moving average chart clearly shows three major profit-taking peaks that formed after powerful waves of growth:
- May 2024 — the average reached 3,860 BTC.
- February 2025 — volumes amounted to 3,200 BTC.
- September 2025 — the value settled at 2,360 BTC.
It is important to understand that the three-month averaged values may seem relatively small. However, on individual days, movement volumes exceeded 10,000, 30,000, and even 142,000 BTC, demonstrating the true scale of activity by "old whales."
Weakening Sellers and the Power Law Technical Signal
The current decline in long-term investor activity below the threshold of 1,000 coins removes a significant factor of excess supply. Now, Bitcoin's price depends much more on short-term demand and the positions of traders in the derivatives market. This lull likely heralds a period of consolidation or a continuation of the current trend. The behavior of large holders can be considered a moderately positive signal.
Notably, the reduction in sales coincided with another rare technical factor. Popular analyst sunnydecree pointed out that, for the first time in three years, Bitcoin's price has approached the lower support boundary of the Power Law model. This mathematical model describes the asset's long-term trajectory through logarithmic lines. Previously, the price touched this zone only during a deep bear market.
The coincidence of these factors looks very promising. First, the oldest participants do not want to take profits near the breakeven level. Second, the price has returned to historically strong support.
My professional commentary: We are observing a classic accumulation pattern. Veterans who have survived more than one cycle understand perfectly that selling at the breakeven level is the worst strategy. The fact that they prefer to hold rather than get rid of coins speaks to their belief in the asset's long-term potential. If we add to this the touch of the lower Power Law boundary, the market is likely on the verge of a new growth phase. However, one should not forget that macroeconomic uncertainty and regulatory actions could introduce their own adjustments.