Bitcoin veterans have stopped selling: a signal for a market reversal?
Long-term Bitcoin holders, known in the community as OGs (veterans), have almost completely stopped taking profits. According to my data, the 90-day moving average of the spent coin volume for this group has dropped to 962 BTC—the lowest level since November 2024. This indicates that at current prices, the most experienced market participants are choosing a strategy of holding rather than selling.
The current market cycle has already gone down in history as a period of the largest-scale coin dumping by veterans. For my analysis, I use the STXO (Spent Transaction Output) metric, which tracks the movement of old Bitcoins on the network. Typically, the movement of such coins signals subsequent selling.
In my research, I categorize investors with a holding period of five years or more as OGs. Their activity can cause significant price fluctuations. The average purchase price of assets for this group is around $63,200, which is nearly in line with current market prices. The 90-day moving average chart clearly shows three major profit-taking peaks, each formed after powerful waves of growth:
- May 2024—the average figure was 3,860 BTC.
- February 2025—volumes reached 3,200 BTC.
- September 2025—the value was recorded at 2,360 BTC.
It is worth noting that on certain days, movement volumes exceeded 10,000, 30,000, and even 142,000 BTC, although the three-month averages may seem relatively modest.
Weakening Seller Pressure
Currently, the average 90-day spending volume of OG participants has fallen below 1,000 coins, settling at 962 BTC. This is the lowest level since late autumn 2024. Industry veterans prefer not to sell Bitcoin at current prices, which significantly reduces market supply pressure.
The decline in long-term investor activity removes an important factor of excess supply. With a reduced inflow of old coins, the price becomes more dependent on short-term demand, and the influence of trader positions in the derivatives market increases. This lull likely heralds a period of consolidation or a continuation of the current upward trend.
Trading at the Lower Boundary of the Power Law Model
The reduction in selling coincides with another notable technical factor. For the first time in three years, the Bitcoin price has approached the lower support boundary of the Power Law model. This mathematical model describes the asset's long-term trajectory through logarithmic lines. Previously, the price touched this zone only during deep bear markets.
The coincidence of these two factors looks quite promising. On one hand, the oldest participants are unwilling to take profits near the breakeven level. On the other, the price has returned to historically strong support.
My conclusion: The behavior of large holders can be considered a moderately positive signal. If short-term demand remains stable, we may see the formation of a new base for growth above current levels.