Bitcoin veterans have frozen sales: is the market preparing for a surge?
The cohort of long-term Bitcoin holders, the so-called "OGs" who have not parted with their coins for over five years, has almost completely stopped selling. This signal deserves the closest attention, as the behavior of these whales has historically determined shifts in market trends.
OG Sales Have Dropped to Lows
According to my analysis of on-chain data, the 90-day moving average of the spent coin volume for this group has plummeted to 962 BTC. Such low levels were last recorded in November 2024. This means that at current prices, which are near the veterans' average acquisition cost (around $63,200), they prefer to hold positions rather than lock in profits.
Historically, we have seen three powerful waves of profit-taking from OGs:
- May 2024 — a peak averaging 3,860 BTC per day.
- February 2025 — 3,200 BTC.
- September 2025 — 2,360 BTC.
Now, the average volume has fallen below 1,000 coins. For comparison, on certain days in previous cycles, the volume of funds moved by veterans exceeded 10,000, 30,000, and even 142,000 BTC. Such a sharp slowdown in selling is an extraordinary event.
Reduced Selling Pressure and a Technical Signal
The decline in OG activity directly reduces selling pressure. When old coins stop moving, the market becomes more sensitive to short-term demand and the actions of derivatives traders. This creates favorable conditions for consolidation or, with the emergence of a positive catalyst, for a new upward move.
Interestingly, this coincides with a rare technical signal. Renowned analyst sunnydecree noted that Bitcoin's price has approached the lower boundary of the Power Law model for the first time in three years. Previously, such a touch occurred only during deep bear markets. The coincidence of two factors — the halt in veteran selling and a test of historical support — looks extremely promising.
My opinion: The behavior of long-term holders is one of the most reliable indicators. Their reluctance to sell at current levels suggests confidence in further growth. Combined with the approach to the lower boundary of the Power Law, the market is likely in an accumulation zone. This is a signal for patient investors, not for panickers. We are on the verge of either powerful consolidation or the start of a new bullish impulse.