Bitcoin veterans have frozen sales: what this means for the market
Investors holding Bitcoin for more than five years have almost completely stopped selling their assets. These market participants, known in the crypto community as OGs (veterans), are exhibiting rare behavior that deserves close attention.
According to analytical data, the 90-day moving average of the volume of coins spent by veterans has dropped to 962 BTC. This is the lowest level since November 2024. The current market situation is forcing long-term holders to choose a holding strategy, which significantly eases selling pressure.
Historical Sales Peaks and Current Lull
The current market cycle has been marked by the largest-ever sell-off of coins by veterans in history. The STXO metric is used for analysis, which tracks the movement of old Bitcoins on the network. The movement of such coins typically precedes their subsequent sale.
The OG group includes investors with a cryptocurrency holding period of five years or more. Their activity can cause strong fluctuations in the market price. The average purchase price of assets by this group is around $63,200, which roughly corresponds to current market quotes.
The 90-day moving average chart clearly shows three major profit-taking peaks that formed after powerful growth waves:
- May 2024 — the average was 3,860 BTC.
- February 2025 — volumes reached 3,200 BTC.
- September 2025 — the value was recorded at 2,360 BTC.
The three-month averages may seem relatively small, but on individual days, movement volumes exceeded 10,000, 30,000, and even 142,000 BTC.
Easing Market Pressure
Currently, the average 90-day spending volume of OG participants has fallen below 1,000 coins, settling at 962 BTC. This is the lowest value since the end of 2024. Industry veterans prefer not to sell Bitcoin at current prices, which reduces market pressure.
The decline in activity among long-term investors removes an important factor of excess supply. With a reduced inflow of old coins, the price becomes more dependent on short-term demand. The influence of trader positions in the derivatives market also increases. This lull likely heralds a period of consolidation or a continuation of the current trend. The behavior of large holders can be considered a moderately positive signal.
Trading at the Lower Boundary of the Power Law Model
The reduction in sales coincides with another notable technical factor. For the first time in three years, the Bitcoin price has approached the lower support boundary of the Power Law model. This mathematical model describes the asset's long-term trajectory through logarithmic lines. Previously, the price touched this zone only during a deep bear market.
The coincidence of these factors looks very promising. First, the oldest participants do not want to lock in profits near the breakeven level. Second, the price has returned to a historically strong support level.
My expert conclusion: the current situation forms a classic scenario for a reversal or, at the very least, a powerful bounce. If the decline in sales from OGs is accompanied by renewed demand from institutional players, we could witness the start of a new upward impulse. However, macroeconomic risks that could disrupt this fragile structure should not be discounted.