Sharp Calm: Bitcoin Veterans Halt Mass Selling — Situation Analysis
Key signal for the market: investors holding Bitcoin for more than five years have almost completely stopped realizing their holdings. These participants, known in the community as OGs or veterans, are showing unprecedented restraint, which is fundamentally changing the balance of power in the market.
According to my analysis of on-chain data, the 90-day moving average of spent coins from this group has dropped to 962 BTC. This is the lowest value since November 2024. The current dynamics indicate that long-term holders are consciously choosing a strategy of holding rather than taking profits. In doing so, they are significantly reducing selling pressure, which was previously one of the main factors behind corrections.
Historical sales peaks and current decline
The current market cycle has already seen the largest sell-off of coins by veterans in history. To assess this process, I use the STXO metric, which tracks the movement of old Bitcoins on the network. The movement of such coins typically precedes their sale.
In the study, the OG cohort includes investors with a holding period of five years or more. Their activity can cause strong price fluctuations. Notably, the average purchase price of assets for this group was around $63,200, which roughly corresponds to current market quotes.
The 90-day moving average chart clearly shows three major profit-taking peaks, each formed after powerful waves of growth:
- May 2024 — the average value was 3,860 BTC.
- February 2025 — volumes reached 3,200 BTC.
- September 2025 — the value was recorded at 2,360 BTC.
It is important to understand that three-month averages may seem relatively small. However, on individual days, movement volumes exceeded 10,000, 30,000, and even 142,000 BTC, indicating high volatility within these periods.
Weakening seller pressure and market implications
Currently, the average 90-day spending volume of OG participants has fallen below 1,000 coins and settled at 962 BTC. This is the lowest level since late autumn 2024. Industry veterans prefer not to sell Bitcoin at current prices, which directly reduces market pressure.
The decline in activity among long-term investors removes an important factor of excess supply. As a result, the price becomes more dependent on short-term demand and trader positions in the derivatives market. This lull likely heralds a period of consolidation or a continuation of the current trend. Thus, the behavior of large holders can be considered a moderately positive signal.
Technical signal: return to the lower boundary of the Power Law
The reduction in sales coincides with another notable technical factor. Popular analyst sunnydecree noticed a rare signal on the cryptocurrency chart. For the first time in three years, the Bitcoin price approached the lower support boundary of the Power Law model. This mathematical model describes the asset's long-term trajectory through logarithmic lines. Previously, the price touched this zone only during deep bear markets.
The coincidence of these two factors looks very promising. First, the oldest participants do not want to lock in profits near the breakeven level. Second, the price has returned to historically strong support.
My opinion: We are observing a classic accumulation pattern. Veterans who have survived more than one cycle fully understand that current prices are close to the zone of maximum financial attractiveness for long-term investments. Their passivity is not weakness, but a calculated decision that could herald a new upward movement.