Bitcoin veterans have frozen sales: is the market preparing for a reversal?
Investors holding Bitcoin for more than five years have virtually stopped selling their holdings. These market participants, known in the crypto community as OGs or market veterans, are demonstrating unprecedented patience, signaling profound changes in the structure of supply and demand.
Analysis of on-chain data shows that the 90-day moving average of the volume of coins they spent has dropped to 962. This is the lowest level since November 2024. At the current BTC price, long-term holders are choosing a strategy of holding rather than taking profits, which significantly eases selling pressure.
Historical Records of Bitcoin Veteran Sales
The current market cycle has seen the most massive sell-off of coins by veterans in history. The STXO metric is used for analysis, which tracks the movement of old Bitcoins on the network. Typically, the movement of such coins indicates their subsequent sale.
In the study, the OG cohort includes investors with a cryptocurrency holding period of five years or more. Their activity can cause strong fluctuations in the market price. The peak purchase price of assets by this group was around $63,200—a level roughly corresponding to current market quotes.
The 90-day moving average chart clearly shows three major peaks in profit-taking. All of them formed after powerful waves of cryptocurrency growth:
- May 2024—the average was 3,860 BTC.
- February 2025—volumes reached 3,200 BTC.
- September 2025—the value was recorded at 2,360 BTC.
The three-month averages may seem relatively small, but on individual days, movement volumes exceeded 10,000, 30,000, and even 142,000 BTC.
Easing Seller Pressure in the Market
Currently, the average 90-day spending volume of OG participants has fallen below 1,000 coins, settling at 962 BTC. This is the lowest level since late autumn 2024. Industry veterans prefer not to sell Bitcoin at current prices, which reduces market pressure.
The decline in long-term investor activity removes an important factor of excess supply. With a reduced inflow of old coins, the price becomes more dependent on short-term demand. The influence of trader positions in the derivatives market also increases. This lull likely heralds a period of consolidation or a continuation of the current trend. The behavior of large holders can be considered a moderately positive signal.
Trading at the Lower Boundary of the Power Law Model
The reduction in sales coincides with another notable technical factor. Popular analyst sunnydecree noticed a rare signal on the cryptocurrency chart. For the first time in three years, the Bitcoin price approached the lower support boundary of the Power Law model. This mathematical model describes the asset's long-term trajectory through logarithmic lines. Previously, the price touched this zone only during a deep bear market.
The coincidence of these factors looks very promising. First, the oldest participants do not want to take profits near the breakeven level. Second, the price has returned to historically strong support.
Expert Commentary: The current situation reminds me of the accumulation phase before a major move. When veterans who have survived more than one cycle stop selling even at prices close to their average cost, it indicates strong faith in the asset's long-term potential. The combination of on-chain signals and the Power Law technical model creates an extremely interesting configuration for entering a position. However, it is worth remembering that the market is unpredictable, and any external shock could disrupt this fragile picture.