Bitcoin veterans have stopped selling: is the market preparing for a trend shift?
Investors holding Bitcoin for more than five years — so-called OGs, or market veterans — have almost completely stopped taking profits. This is a landmark event that directly impacts the supply and demand balance and could signal the start of a new phase for the leading cryptocurrency.
According to my analysis of on-chain data, the 90-day moving average of the spent volume by this group of participants has dropped to 962 BTC. This is the lowest level since November 2024. The current trend indicates that long-term holders are choosing a strategy of holding rather than selling, even at current market prices. This significantly eases selling pressure.
Historical Sales Records and Sharp Slowdown
The current market cycle has already seen the largest sell-off of coins by veterans in history. For my analysis, I use the STXO (Spent Transaction Output) metric, which tracks the movement of old Bitcoins on the network. Typically, the movement of such coins precedes their subsequent sale.
The OG group includes investors with a holding period of five years or more. Their activity can cause strong price fluctuations. The peak purchase price of assets for this group was around $63,200, which roughly corresponds to current market prices.
The 90-day moving average chart clearly shows three major profit-taking peaks that formed after powerful waves of growth:
- May 2024 — the average was 3,860 BTC.
- February 2025 — volumes reached 3,200 BTC.
- September 2025 — the value was recorded at 2,360 BTC.
Although the three-month averages may seem relatively small, on individual days, movement volumes exceeded 10,000, 30,000, and even 142,000 BTC.
Easing Seller Pressure: What Does It Mean?
Currently, the average 90-day spending volume of OG participants has fallen below 1,000 coins, settling at 962 BTC. This is the lowest level since late autumn 2024. Industry veterans prefer not to sell Bitcoin at current prices, which reduces market pressure.
The decline in long-term investor activity removes an important factor of excess supply. Conversely, with a reduced inflow of old coins, the price becomes more dependent on short-term demand. The influence of trader positions in the derivatives market also increases. This lull likely heralds a period of consolidation or a continuation of the current trend. Thus, the behavior of large holders can be considered a moderately positive signal.
Trading at the Lower Boundary of the Power Law Model
The reduction in sales coincides with another notable technical factor. Popular analyst sunnydecree noted a rare signal on the cryptocurrency chart. For the first time in three years, Bitcoin's price approached the lower support boundary of the Power Law model. This mathematical model describes the asset's long-term trajectory through logarithmic lines. Previously, the price touched this zone only during a deep bear market.
The coincidence of these factors looks very promising. First, the oldest participants do not want to lock in profits near the breakeven level. Second, the price has returned to historically strong support.
My expert conclusion: The combination of a sharp decline in sales by OGs and testing of the lower Power Law boundary creates a foundation for a potential reversal. The market appears to be transitioning into an accumulation phase, and current levels could prove to be an attractive entry point for medium-term investors.