Bitcoin veterans have frozen sales: is the market preparing for a reversal?
Investors holding bitcoins for more than five years — the so-called OGs, or "veterans" of the market — have almost completely stopped selling. Their activity has reached a minimum since November 2024, which is a powerful signal for all market participants.
According to my analysis of on-chain data, the 90-day moving average of the spent coin volume for this group has dropped to 962 BTC. This means that at the current price, long-term holders prefer not to lock in profits but to continue accumulating. Selling pressure from "old blood" has weakened to a minimum.
Historical Peaks of Profit-Taking
The current market cycle has already seen record volumes of selling by veterans. For my analysis, I use the STXO (Spent Transaction Output) metric, which tracks the movement of "old" coins. Typically, such movement precedes a sale.
The average purchase price for this cohort is around $63,200 — a level close to current quotes. The 90-day moving average chart clearly shows three peaks of profit-taking:
- May 2024 — average indicator of 3,860 BTC.
- February 2025 — volumes reached 3,200 BTC.
- September 2025 — the value was recorded at 2,360 BTC.
Although the three-month averages look modest, on individual days, movement volumes exceeded 10,000, 30,000, and even 142,000 BTC. This indicates that veterans actively used moments of strong growth to exit into fiat.
Weakening of Seller Pressure
Now the situation has changed dramatically. The average 90-day spending volume of OGs has fallen below 1,000 coins and settled at 962 BTC. This is the lowest level since late autumn 2024. Industry veterans do not want to sell bitcoins at current prices, which significantly reduces market pressure.
The decline in long-term investor activity removes an important factor of excess supply. Now the price is more dependent on short-term demand and trader positions in the derivatives market. This lull likely heralds a period of consolidation or a continuation of the current trend. The behavior of large holders can be considered a moderately positive signal.
Trading at the Lower Boundary of the Power Law Model
The reduction in sales coincides with another notable technical factor. Popular analyst sunnydecree noticed a rare signal: for the first time in three years, the bitcoin price has approached the lower support boundary of the Power Law model. Previously, the price touched this zone only during a deep bear market.
The coincidence of these two factors looks very promising. First, the oldest participants do not want to lock in profits near the breakeven level. Second, the price has returned to historically strong support.
My opinion: This behavior of OGs is a classic sign that "smart money" sees no point in selling at current levels. If we add the technical support of the Power Law to this, the market may be ready for a new impulsive upward move. However, it is worth remembering that the calm before the storm is always a zone of uncertainty.