The altcoin season is in question: Glassnode indicator has recorded an anomaly
Glassnode's Altcoin Cycle Signal has re-entered the "altcoin season" zone, but the company's analysts warn that the trigger was not a strengthening of alternative coins, but a sharp drop in Bitcoin.
The traditional logic of this signal is simple: when altcoins are confidently rising and Bitcoin holds its positions without drawing all the liquidity to itself, the market enters the altseason phase. However, the current situation is a rare exception.
BTC's Drop as a Catalyst
Currently, the Altcoin Cycle Signal indicator has surged to the 86 mark, formally indicating the peak of altseason. However, Glassnode emphasizes that the main reason is not organic altcoin growth, but an 18% decline in Bitcoin over the past month. Sellers in the BTC market have nearly exhausted their potential after two years of intense pressure, but this has only temporarily shifted investor focus.
"Bitcoin is still doing the heavy lifting," Glassnode analysts note.
The correction of the first cryptocurrency began amid a tightening of rhetoric from the U.S. Federal Reserve System and market fears that rates could remain high or even rise. Bank of America forecasts three rate hikes this year, which traditionally pressures risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Grayscale Scenario: Hope for a Fed Pause
Not all experts share the pessimistic outlook. Grayscale's Head of Research, Zach Pandl, believes the company's base case scenario assumes the Fed will refrain from further hikes. If concerns about policy tightening ease, Bitcoin and altcoins could receive a powerful boost.
"Bitcoin and gold have underperformed stocks since the start of the Iran conflict — partly due to expectations of Fed tightening. However, if the probability of rate hikes decreases, Bitcoin could catch up with stocks," the company's blog states.
New Altseason: Not for Everyone
Glassnode warns that high indicator values do not guarantee widespread growth. A BTC recovery could confirm the signal, but only if altcoins rise against a strong Bitcoin, not its weakness.
Bitwise's Chief Investment Officer, Matt Hougan, believes the era of classic altcoin rallies is over. "I don't think we'll see the usual simultaneous rise of all assets. Instead, we're likely facing an unconventional altcoin season," he stated. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju adds that for altcoins, "a new story is no longer enough." Only projects with real revenue and a working business model will survive.
My analysis: The current Glassnode signal is more of a "false flag" than a true start to altseason. Investors should exercise extreme selectivity: the classic "buy everything" strategy no longer works. Focusing on fundamentally strong projects with sustainable economics is the only path to profit in this cycle.