Bitcoin veterans have frozen sales: a signal for a market reversal?
Investors holding Bitcoin for more than five years have almost completely stopped realizing their assets. These market participants, known in the crypto community as OGs (veterans), are demonstrating rare patience, drastically reducing selling pressure.
According to my on-chain data analysis, the 90-day moving average of the spent coin volume for this group has dropped to 962 BTC. This is the lowest level since November 2024. At the current Bitcoin price, long-term holders are consciously choosing a strategy of holding rather than taking profits. Thus, they are significantly weakening bearish pressure on the market.
Historical Selling Peaks and Current Calm
The current market cycle has already seen the largest sell-off of coins by veterans in history. For my analysis, I use the STXO (Spent Transaction Output) metric, which tracks the movement of "old" Bitcoins on the network. Typically, the movement of such coins indicates their subsequent sale. The OG group includes investors with a holding period of five years or more, and their activity can cause strong price fluctuations. The average purchase price of assets for this group is around $63,200, which roughly corresponds to current market quotes.
The 90-day moving average chart clearly shows three major profit-taking peaks that formed after powerful waves of cryptocurrency growth:
- May 2024 — the average figure was 3,860 BTC.
- February 2025 — volumes reached 3,200 BTC.
- September 2025 — the value was recorded at 2,360 BTC.
It is important to understand: although the three-month averages may seem relatively small, on individual days, movement volumes exceeded 10,000, 30,000, and even 142,000 BTC.
Weakening Selling Pressure and a Technical Signal
Currently, the average 90-day spending volume of OG participants has fallen below 1,000 coins, settling at 962 BTC. This value is the lowest since late autumn 2024. Industry veterans prefer not to sell Bitcoin at current prices, which reduces market pressure and eliminates a key factor of excess supply. With a decrease in the inflow of old coins, the price becomes more dependent on short-term demand and trader positions in the derivatives market. This calm likely heralds a period of consolidation or a continuation of the current trend.
The reduction in selling coincided with another notable technical factor. Popular analyst sunnydecree noticed a rare signal on the chart: for the first time in three years, the Bitcoin price approached the lower support boundary of the Power Law model. This mathematical model describes the asset's long-term trajectory through logarithmic lines. Previously, the price touched this zone only during a deep bear market.
The coincidence of these factors—veterans halting sales and testing historical support—looks very promising. The oldest participants do not want to take profits near the breakeven level, and the price has returned to historically strong support.
My professional opinion: The behavior of long-term holders can be considered a moderately positive signal. However, the market is currently in a zone of uncertainty. If we add macroeconomic factors and institutional activity to this, we could witness the formation of a bottom, after which a new impulse will follow. But without a rise in demand from new participants, consolidation may drag on.