Bitcoin veterans have frozen sales: the market is preparing for a shift
The largest long-term Bitcoin holders, known in the industry as OGs (veterans), have almost completely stopped selling their assets. Those who have held coins for more than five years have sharply reduced their sales volumes, fundamentally changing the balance of power in the market.
According to on-chain data analytics, the 90-day moving average of spent coins among this group has dropped to 962 BTC. This is the lowest value since November 2024. At current BTC prices, long-term investors are choosing a holding strategy rather than profit-taking, which significantly eases selling pressure.
Historical Selling Peaks Are Behind Us
The current market cycle has already gone down in history as a period of the largest coin sell-off by veterans. The analysis uses the STXO metric, which tracks the movement of old Bitcoins on the network — typically a signal of impending sales.
In the study, the OG category includes investors with a holding period of five years or more. Their activity can cause strong price fluctuations. The average purchase price of this group's assets was around $63,200, which roughly corresponds to current market prices.
The 90-day moving average chart clearly shows three major profit-taking peaks:
- May 2024 — the average was 3,860 BTC.
- February 2025 — volumes reached 3,200 BTC.
- September 2025 — the value was recorded at 2,360 BTC.
Although the three-month averages may seem relatively small, on individual days, movement volumes exceeded 10,000, 30,000, and even 142,000 BTC.
Easing Selling Pressure
Currently, the average 90-day spending volume of OG participants has fallen below 1,000 coins and stands at 962 BTC. Industry veterans prefer not to sell Bitcoin at current prices, which reduces market pressure.
The decline in long-term investor activity removes an important factor of excess supply. With a reduced inflow of old coins, the price becomes more dependent on short-term demand, and the influence of trader positions in the derivatives market also increases. This lull likely heralds a period of consolidation or a continuation of the current trend. The behavior of large holders can be considered a moderately positive signal.
Trading at the Lower Boundary of the Power Law Model
The reduction in sales coincides with another notable technical factor. Popular analyst sunnydecree noted a rare signal: for the first time in three years, the Bitcoin price has approached the lower support boundary of the Power Law model. This mathematical model describes the asset's long-term trajectory through logarithmic lines. Previously, the price touched this zone only during a deep bear market.
My expert opinion: The coincidence of two factors — the halt of sales by OGs and the approach to historically strong Power Law support — creates an extremely promising configuration. The oldest participants do not want to lock in profits near the breakeven level, and the price has returned to a zone that was previously a turning point. This is not a guarantee of growth, but a serious argument in favor of the cycle bottom potentially already being formed.