Bitcoin veterans have frozen sales: a signal for a market reversal?
Investors holding Bitcoin for more than five years, known in the community as OGs (market veterans), have almost completely stopped selling their holdings. This fundamentally changes the balance of power in the market and reduces selling pressure.
According to my on-chain data analysis, the 90-day moving average of the spent coin volume for this group has dropped to 962 BTC. The last time such values were recorded was in November 2024. At the current price of the leading cryptocurrency, long-term holders are choosing a strategy of holding rather than taking profits.
Historical Sales Records and Current Calm
The current market cycle has already seen record volumes of coin sales by veterans. To assess this process, I use the STXO (Spent Transaction Output) metric, which tracks the movement of "old" Bitcoins on the network. Typically, the movement of such coins precedes their subsequent sale.
I classify investors with a holding period of five years or more as the OG group. Their average purchase price is around $63,200, which almost coincides with current market quotes. The 90-day moving average chart clearly shows three major profit-taking peaks:
- May 2024 — the average value was 3,860 BTC.
- February 2025 — volumes reached 3,200 BTC.
- September 2025 — the value was recorded at 2,360 BTC.
It is important to understand that three-month averages may seem relatively small. However, on individual days, movement volumes exceeded 10,000, 30,000, and even 142,000 BTC.
Weakening Seller Pressure and Technical Signal
Currently, the average 90-day spending volume of OG participants has fallen below 1,000 coins, settling at 962 BTC. This is the lowest value since late autumn 2024. Industry veterans prefer not to sell Bitcoin at current prices, which removes an important factor of excess supply.
With a decrease in the inflow of old coins, the price becomes more dependent on short-term demand. The influence of trader positions in the derivatives market also increases. This calm likely foreshadows a period of consolidation or a continuation of the current trend.
The reduction in sales coincided with another notable technical factor. For the first time in three years, the Bitcoin price has approached the lower support boundary of the Power Law model. Previously, the price touched this zone only during a deep bear market. The coincidence of these factors looks very promising.
My expert opinion: The behavior of the largest holders is a moderately positive signal. They do not want to take profits near the breakeven level, and the price has returned to historically strong support. This creates a foundation for a potential reversal, but the final direction will be determined by short-term demand and the macroeconomic backdrop.