Bitcoin veterans have frozen sales: the market is preparing for a new impulse
Investors holding Bitcoin for more than five years have almost completely stopped selling their holdings. These participants, known in the crypto community as OGs (market veterans), have sharply reduced their activity, fundamentally changing the balance of power in the market.
According to my analysis of on-chain data, the 90-day moving average of spent coins by this group has dropped to 962 BTC. This is the lowest level since November 2024. At the current BTC price, long-term holders prefer to maintain their positions rather than take profits, significantly easing selling pressure.
Historical Sales Peaks Are Behind Us
The current market cycle has already seen record coin selling by veterans. To assess this phenomenon, I use the STXO metric, which tracks the movement of old Bitcoins on the network. The movement of such coins typically precedes their sale.
In my research, I classify investors with a holding period of five years or more as OGs. Their activity can cause strong price fluctuations. The average purchase price of assets for this group is around $63,200, which closely aligns with current market quotes.
The 90-day moving average chart clearly shows three major profit-taking peaks that formed after powerful waves of cryptocurrency growth:
- May 2024 — the average was 3,860 BTC.
- February 2025 — volumes reached 3,200 BTC.
- September 2025 — the value was recorded at 2,360 BTC.
The three-month averages may seem modest, but on individual days, movement volumes exceeded 10,000, 30,000, and even 142,000 BTC.
Easing Selling Pressure
Currently, the average 90-day spending volume of OG participants has fallen below 1,000 coins, settling at 962 BTC. This is the lowest level since late autumn 2024. Industry veterans are unwilling to sell Bitcoin at current prices, reducing market pressure.
The decline in long-term investor activity removes a key factor of excess supply. With a reduced inflow of old coins, the price becomes more dependent on short-term demand. The influence of trader positions in the derivatives market also increases. This lull likely heralds a period of consolidation or a continuation of the current trend. Thus, the behavior of large holders can be considered a moderately positive signal.
Technical Signal: Lower Bound of the Power Law
The reduction in sales coincides with another notable technical factor. For the first time in three years, the Bitcoin price has approached the lower support boundary of the Power Law model. This mathematical model describes the asset's long-term trajectory through logarithmic lines. Previously, the price touched this zone only during deep bear markets.
The coincidence of these factors looks very promising. First, the oldest participants are unwilling to take profits near the breakeven level. Second, the price has returned to a historically strong support level.
My expert opinion: This combination—a lull from OGs and an approach to a critical technical zone—creates the prerequisites for forming a new upward impulse. If demand from retail and institutional investors persists, we could witness a significant price movement in the coming weeks.