Bitcoin veterans have halted sales: what lies behind the sharp decline in long-term holder activity
Investors holding Bitcoin for more than five years — so-called OGs or market veterans — have almost completely stopped selling their assets. This is a key signal indicating a shift in sentiment among the most resilient members of the crypto community.
Analyzing on-chain data, I observe a sharp decline in the 90-day moving average of the spent coin volume for this group. The metric has dropped to 962 BTC, the lowest level since November 2024. At the current Bitcoin price, long-term holders prefer a holding strategy over profit-taking. This significantly eases selling pressure and reduces the risk of a sharp crash.
Historical Sales Peaks Are Behind Us
The current market cycle has already seen record volumes of coin dumping by veterans. To assess their activity, I use the STXO (Spent Transaction Output) metric, which tracks the movement of "old" Bitcoins on the network. Typically, the movement of such coins signals subsequent selling.
The OG group includes investors with a holding period of five years or more. Their average purchase price is around $63,200, which almost matches current market quotes. The 90-day moving average chart clearly shows three major profit-taking peaks, each forming after powerful waves of growth:
- May 2024 — the average was 3,860 BTC.
- February 2025 — volumes reached 3,200 BTC.
- September 2025 — the value was recorded at 2,360 BTC.
Although the three-month averages look relatively modest, on individual days, movement volumes exceeded 10,000, 30,000, and even 142,000 BTC. This indicates high volatility and significant influence from large players.
Easing Seller Pressure and a New Balance of Power
Currently, the average 90-day spending volume of OG participants has fallen below 1,000 coins — to 962 BTC. This is the lowest level since late autumn 2024. Industry veterans are unwilling to sell Bitcoin at current prices, virtually eliminating the factor of excess supply from this group.
As a result, Bitcoin's price now depends more heavily on short-term demand and the positions of traders in the derivatives market. Such a lull from long-term holders often precedes either a period of consolidation or a continuation of the current upward trend. The behavior of large holders can be considered a moderately positive signal.
Technical Context: Touching the Lower Boundary of the Power Law
The reduction in selling coincides with another notable technical factor. For the first time in three years, Bitcoin's price has approached the lower support boundary of the Power Law model. This mathematical model describes the asset's long-term trajectory through logarithmic lines. Previously, the price touched this zone only during deep bear markets.
The coincidence of these two factors — the halt in veteran selling and a return to historically strong support — looks very promising. The oldest participants do not want to take profits near the breakeven level, and the price has returned to a zone that previously served as a reliable bottom.
My professional opinion: This combination of on-chain and technical signals creates a foundation for a potential reversal or, at the very least, for the formation of a sustainable bottom. If short-term demand persists, we may see a new upward impulse. However, prolonged consolidation should not be ruled out — the market is clearly waiting for a trigger for the next directional move.