Bitcoin veterans have frozen sales: the market enters a phase of waiting
The largest long-term Bitcoin holders, known in the community as OGs (market veterans), have almost completely stopped selling their assets. This group of investors, holding coins for over five years, is demonstrating rare patience, which is fundamentally changing the balance of power in the market.
According to my on-chain data analysis, the 90-day moving average of the volume of coins spent by veterans has dropped to 962 BTC. This is the lowest level since November 2024. At the current Bitcoin price, long-term investors prefer a holding strategy rather than taking profits. Thus, selling pressure has significantly weakened.
Historical Profit-Taking Peaks
The current market cycle has already seen record volumes of coin dumping by OGs. To assess the activity of this group, I use the STXO (Spent Transaction Output) metric, which tracks the movement of old Bitcoins on the network. Traditionally, the movement of such coins precedes their subsequent sale.
The average purchase price of assets for this group is around $63,200, which is almost in line with current market quotes. The 90-day moving average chart clearly shows three major profit-taking peaks, each formed after a powerful wave of growth:
- May 2024 — the average reached 3,860 BTC.
- February 2025 — volumes amounted to 3,200 BTC.
- September 2025 — the value was recorded at 2,360 BTC.
Although the three-month averages may seem relatively modest, on individual days, movement volumes exceeded 10,000, 30,000, and even 142,000 BTC.
Weakening Seller Pressure
The current value of the 90-day moving average, having fallen below 1,000 coins to 962 BTC, is the lowest since autumn 2024. Industry veterans are deliberately avoiding selling at current prices, which removes an important factor of excess supply.
As a result, the Bitcoin price becomes more sensitive to short-term demand and trader positions in the derivatives market. This lull likely heralds a period of consolidation or a continuation of the current trend. The behavior of large holders can be considered a moderately positive signal.
Trading at the Lower Boundary of the Power Law Model
The reduction in sales coincides with another notable technical factor. For the first time in three years, the Bitcoin price has approached the lower support boundary of the Power Law model. This mathematical model describes the long-term trajectory of the asset through logarithmic lines. Previously, the price touched this zone only during a deep bear market.
Analytical Conclusion: The coincidence of two factors — the cessation of sales by veterans and the return of the price to historically strong support — looks extremely promising. The oldest market participants do not want to take profits near the breakeven level, and the technical picture points to a potential reversal zone. This creates a foundation for a possible new upward movement but requires confirmation from demand.