Bitcoin veteran sales have dropped to a minimum: a signal for a market reversal?
Investors holding Bitcoin for more than five years—so-called OG or market veterans—have virtually stopped taking profits. Their activity has dropped to the lowest levels since fall 2024, fundamentally shifting the balance of power in the market.
According to my analysis of on-chain data, the 90-day moving average of spent coins from this group has fallen to 962 BTC. This is the lowest reading since November 2024. At current prices, long-term holders prefer to maintain their positions rather than sell, significantly reducing selling pressure.
Historical Sales Records: What Happened Before
The current market cycle has already made history as a period of the most massive coin dumping by veterans. To assess their activity, I use the STXO (Spent Transaction Output) metric, which tracks the movement of old Bitcoins on the network. Typically, the movement of such coins precedes their subsequent sale.
In this study, I classify investors with a holding period of five years or more as the OG cohort. Their activity can cause strong price fluctuations. The average purchase price of assets for this group is around $63,200—a level roughly in line with current market quotes.
The 90-day moving average chart clearly shows three major profit-taking peaks, each forming after powerful waves of growth:
- May 2024 — the average stood at 3,860 BTC.
- February 2025 — volumes reached 3,200 BTC.
- September 2025 — the value was recorded at 2,360 BTC.
It is important to note that the three-month averages may appear relatively small. However, on individual days, movement volumes exceeded 10,000, 30,000, and even 142,000 BTC.
Weakening Seller Pressure: What It Means
Currently, the average 90-day spending volume of OG participants has fallen below 1,000 coins. The indicator stands at 962 BTC. Industry veterans prefer not to sell Bitcoin at current prices, significantly reducing market pressure.
The decline in long-term investor activity removes a key factor of excess supply. Conversely, when the inflow of old coins decreases, the price becomes more dependent on short-term demand. The influence of trader positions in the derivatives market also increases. This lull likely heralds a period of consolidation or a continuation of the current trend. Thus, the behavior of large holders can be seen as a moderately positive signal.
Trading at the Lower Bound of the Power Law Model
The reduction in sales coincides with another notable technical factor. Popular analyst sunnydecree spotted a rare signal on the cryptocurrency's chart. For the first time in three years, Bitcoin's price has approached the lower support boundary of the Power Law model. This mathematical model describes the asset's long-term trajectory through logarithmic lines. Previously, the price touched this zone only during deep bear markets.
The coincidence of these factors looks very promising. First, the oldest participants are unwilling to take profits near the breakeven level. Second, the price has returned to historically strong support.
My expert opinion: The combination of a sharp decline in OG selling and a test of the Power Law lower bound forms a powerful bullish scenario. If demand holds, we could see the formation of a new upward trend. However, it is worth remembering that the cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile, and any external shock could disrupt this fragile harmony.